GHCN Part 4: The Models, Current State

In my previous post I talked about five distinct models of temperature data. Three for the US, Canada, and Europe and two for Australia. Based upon the defining parameter of what I am calling the temperature delta, which is the absolute change in temperature from the beginning to the end of my time period, these models are accurate to within ± 1° for 75% and ± 1.5° for the remainder in describing individual station data for the appropriate region.

Below are the five models.

 

 

Suffice to say, at this point, there are obviously great differences in what happened between locations over the past 100 or so years. There are obviously significant local and regional factors as yet undefined. This, in itself, is a significant finding in the context of the Global Warming or Climate Change debate.

There are also indications of what may be global factors. If you look carefully at the first four graphs, paying attention to the red five year average trend lines, there is a distinctive V shaped pattern centered on the year 1996. This appears to be a strong signal as it has manifested itself through four distinctly different trends. That would indicate the existence of a wide ranging event of some significance such as a major volcanic eruption.

I am anticipating moving forward from here is going to become progressively more time consuming. My first inclination is to begin by looking at changes in population based upon the Australian models. However, there are many ways in which the face of the land may change over time. Man and nature both never stand still.

Until next time, folks.