tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36837364441122449922024-02-20T11:29:34.615-08:00Bubba's Possum RanchPossum, the other, other white meat!Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.comBlogger54125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-77723061591868731292021-03-02T06:58:00.002-08:002021-03-02T07:00:59.366-08:00<a href="https://twitter.com/BubbasRanch/status/1289264381620924416">https://twitter.com/BubbasRanch/status/1289264381620924416</a><br />Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-60511134452210758862019-06-09T19:06:00.000-07:002019-06-11T17:52:44.223-07:00On Combining Record Series of Different Lengths Into A Time SeriesHow do I put a bunch of different time series together into a grand time series is not a question the average person is likely to ever ask. Much less even care about. However, in the grand debate of climate change this question remains important. Many people, maybe even most, will naturally say this question was asked and answered long ago. Okay, most people don't know and really don't care. Neither of those things means asking basic questions is something which just shouldn't be done. What if reinventing the wheel produces a better wheel? And who wouldn't want a better wheel?<br />
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Maybe established wheel makers?<br />
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I have asked this basic question and I have an answer which I would like to present to anyone who is interested. I will do so in the most simple manner possible. The following examples describe this process. I have chosen to use a common waveform using the sin function as the basis for the sample data.<br />
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Consider the four time series depicted below. All four time series follow the sin wave pattern on different averages. However, only one record is complete. The other three are fragments measured from longer series. We assume these fragments follow patterns which are the same as or very similar to that of the complete series. I know this is true because I constructed the data so this would be true. <br />
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Obviously we cannot simply compute an average as we could if we had complete data for all four series. The error being the differences on average between the series. I am going to transform the data into a form where those differences are minimized. I will do so by subtracting the series average from each part of a series. This, in effect, translates the series average to zero.<br />
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The final result of this operation is shown below.<br />
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You will notice there are errors in this process with the shortest two of the four series. The reason for each of these is an estimation error for the true series average due to the length of the time series data. Each of these series is a cyclical curve of a repeating pattern. Any estimate based upon a length of time which is not equal to or a multiple of the length of this pattern will be biased by an amount dependent upon where the endpoints lie relative to the pattern. <br />
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The following shows the resulting estimate of the complete average using the transformed data above. This estimate is very close to the actual average. <br />
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The equation for the linear trend for the estimated average is y = -0.0004x + .1049. The actual average is also end point biased. It's linear trend line is y = -0.0005 + 0.1353. The true trend is zero. <br />
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The following example illustrates how this procedure performs using two series which are identical with the exception of a trend induced into a portion of one series.<br />
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Now I am going to present the same operation using the anomalies from common baseline technique which, as I understand it, is another method commonly used. For this example my baseline period corresponds to the portion of time where a trend was induced into one of the two series. I have chosen to do this to illustrate the potential for error. <br />
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As we see the fit between the two series is not as optimal as the previous process. The resulting average has exactly the same trend as the previous method with a slightly lower overall average. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEStj0HtuxrP5G4C1TM896iFlleVgF6e-8sMK22ps4ZFBacwFF5NkrNy93MtMHV_qfXsGXGvgvVYr7UF90zrN5w4uNswO2uITwH9to-XNJfbyydaYN_29h_KHzIWDDnI0RZFs4MSxgY64X/s1600/Anomalies+Average.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="498" data-original-width="733" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEStj0HtuxrP5G4C1TM896iFlleVgF6e-8sMK22ps4ZFBacwFF5NkrNy93MtMHV_qfXsGXGvgvVYr7UF90zrN5w4uNswO2uITwH9to-XNJfbyydaYN_29h_KHzIWDDnI0RZFs4MSxgY64X/s640/Anomalies+Average.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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I am now going to further explore how these two processes differ by looking at the range of the data produced over the length of the time series. Keep these results in mind.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb_B8rdiIN8hNmnI2YD27kFPAMZFER6Y95E97jPgzSCkUIdILM_0AlW_nttO0FIdgJfqCZKAVFYL8ZWvCgblhzT-fQn4AfZUVE3-zlT5JbgikQyd4GRoEYA8foPCY2liYg4_f6Q05LhmdQ/s1600/Transformed+Range.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="762" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb_B8rdiIN8hNmnI2YD27kFPAMZFER6Y95E97jPgzSCkUIdILM_0AlW_nttO0FIdgJfqCZKAVFYL8ZWvCgblhzT-fQn4AfZUVE3-zlT5JbgikQyd4GRoEYA8foPCY2liYg4_f6Q05LhmdQ/s640/Transformed+Range.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTz9sa_GeRYwHjgvH3STaDCGWrelyJrGpXC0tTE-XbzZrp4pCh1tjUB0dMWA1oWDkGaBmN7N05kNr0o8AFmNp0XD9aLpmM61qpJNKSYG7MYEaR-AgqheIvFas-OVY6qfx-jjkAIeET6HXk/s1600/Anomalies+Range.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="691" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTz9sa_GeRYwHjgvH3STaDCGWrelyJrGpXC0tTE-XbzZrp4pCh1tjUB0dMWA1oWDkGaBmN7N05kNr0o8AFmNp0XD9aLpmM61qpJNKSYG7MYEaR-AgqheIvFas-OVY6qfx-jjkAIeET6HXk/s640/Anomalies+Range.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Both processes are a means of meshing data series of differing lengths of time with differing base averages together. Both process share the same error source. That error source being the error in estimating how the data you have relates to the actual local average over the full time frame being studied. This is in fact an unknown. <br />
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The assumption, as I stated previously in my first example, is a pattern exists which would adequately describe all the fragmentary records we have if we only knew what that pattern was. Assuming such a pattern exists in reality, having produced an estimate of such a pattern, it is necessary to determine how good the estimate is. One way of doing so would be to test your estimated data against the data you have. The following shows how well the estimated pattern from each method, using anomalies and using my transform method, matches the patterns of the individual data sets used in my example.<br />
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<strong>My transform method produces a good match where the two series follow the same pattern. The anomaly method produces a good match only in the area where the individual series data are close to the baseline average determined during the time of a temporary localized trend. </strong><br />
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The bottom line here is the sub average used to calculate anomalies in my example was simply an inaccurate estimate of the average of the available data. The best estimate of the average of the available data is the average of the available data. Which is so basic, isn't it?<br />
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This is the essential weakness of any attempt to combine incongruent data series of varying lengths. You do not know if the snippet of data you have represents a point in time which is higher or lower than the true average. The correct way to average the data is exactly the same way you would do so if you had complete data. <br />
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Therefore, the most accurate method to use is one which comes the closest to the ideal condition of replicating the true average for the time period you are looking at. <br />
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Now, let's discuss how an uneven number of these short time series might induce a bias into a calculated composite time series using the anomalies from a baseline method. I will again demonstrate using an example.<br />
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For this example I am using three simulated series, two of which have induced negative trends at the time I am using to establish a baseline from which to compute anomalies. <br />
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Now I am going to convert each curve to a set of anomalies from this baseline period.<br />
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As you can see the fit is not exactly optimal. Below is how this new computed average looks against the actual average.<br />
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As expected the match of the estimated curve is only good close to where the three curves were averaged. Below is how this biased average manifests in terms of the error from true.<br />
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As you can see, the net effect is to lower the estimate of the past. What causes this bias in the resulting average is the number of series which are complete from the baseline point forward and incomplete from the baseline point back. Obviously, if we had complete data sets for all three series the resulting average would have the correct shape. Also, if the length and times were evenly distributed throughout the composite time series would be more accurate as the error would be more or less evenly distributed. However, in this scenario the error is forced into the past through the averaging process and by the increasing number of series added moving forward.<br />
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This is the mechanism whereby this process will be biased to either over estimate or under estimate the past depending upon the number of series added moving forward and direction of any anomalous trends in the baseline period.<br />
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<br />Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-36990470360297457522019-02-22T12:45:00.001-08:002019-02-22T12:45:35.850-08:00Back to Basic Statistics: Global Warming is Likely An Artifact of Localized Night Time Warming
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I am looking at the history of temperature change from the 1900
to 2010 using a sample of 691 stations from the USHCN. The choice of stations
was determined by the number of years recorded. These 691 stations have a
minimum of 100 annual records.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Since these stations cover a range of temperatures and the
number of stations reporting per year is less than 691 for much of this time
frame it is necessary to translate the records to deviations from a baseline
average. This is less than ideal, however limiting the sample to stations with
111 years reduces the sample size quite a bit. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question at this point is how to determine an
appropriate time interval to determine this base line. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Consider what happens when I use the 1980s to establish this
base line. The shape of the average temperature will be the same no matter what
baseline I choose. The issue here is what happens to the standard deviations.
This indicates my choice of the 80’s as a baseline has changed the shape of the
data distribution over time. This shape does not accurately reflect how the
data changes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">A test for this is to simply compare the projection against
the actual data from 1900 forward. I accomplished this by subtracting decadal
averages from the 2000-2009 average for each station and looking at the average
and spread for each decade. This shows this projection is only accurate from
about 1980 forward. The accuracy decreases progressively from 1980 back to
1900. This was the expected result.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Consider what happens when I use the 1920’s to establish my
average baseline. Using the same testing methods as before I found this to be reasonably
accurate, within the population parameters, from 1920 forward. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I decided upon using an average from 1900 to 1960 as a
baseline. When tested as above this produced the most accurate results. Part of
that comes from the longer length of time used. This evens out smaller sub
trends within the data. There is also the issue of number of stations reporting.
Any longer time frame begins reducing the projection accuracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">But what about all
those shorter station records?<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It should be obvious, based upon how I define my baseline, I
can’t add in any records beginning after the baseline time frame. For those
stations which began prior to 1960 the accuracy with which they can be located
within the record is dependent upon how many years they reported within the
baseline period. I can only accurately place a record within this time frame if
I accurately transform the data by the station location’s true average from 1900
to 1960. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You can test this by comparing sub averages of samples from
the data set. For example, look at the difference by station between their
1900-1960 average and their 1930 to 1960 average. Look at the average and
standard deviation of that data set. The standard deviation defines the amount
of uncertainty in including stations which began in 1930. The added uncertainty
is simply unacceptable. Meaning I can't accurately place the shorter record into the data set because I do not know what its true average really was. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The proper way to handle shorter data sets is to perform this exact same process from a later baseline. Again, you need to maintain as uniform a data set as you can. The same comments concerning shorter data records still apply. To include even more data sets you would look at a shorter time frame. Shorter studies can then be compared against longer studies during coincident time frames. You simply cannot average a record from 1930 to 1950 with a record from 1990 to 2005. That is common sense between two records, that logic applies to many records.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now the results<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The average temperature of this sample did rise by 0.28° C
in the 2000’s relative to the 1900 – 1960 baseline. The standard deviation also
rose by .25 in the same manner. That translates into and increase of 0.8° C in
the spread of the data. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s examine how the upper and lower edges defining a projected
90% of the population changed over time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKEbEylRVLKUNc6pipP2O6fyIk5U2Uqhc4Nvvp9v_56iOLFcH2VYA0hxD0avFuDFQ6lN2XCqxRd7AT71tuXdqHZXJlsa56AVOXEZ9zN9hTAjonfU6bYYQXTigtuDUtvrT4kAdmPY4UkQQV/s1600/w10.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="608" height="392" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKEbEylRVLKUNc6pipP2O6fyIk5U2Uqhc4Nvvp9v_56iOLFcH2VYA0hxD0avFuDFQ6lN2XCqxRd7AT71tuXdqHZXJlsa56AVOXEZ9zN9hTAjonfU6bYYQXTigtuDUtvrT4kAdmPY4UkQQV/s640/w10.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3cYJ89Ri-SXTSz07YDifxHYcNA4q4J9vljndy3c2vZSGoI_xLP3s9HxLSfsmCmFLpGAQsqVzv8LmTQfgwdX7UC611cC9INaHYHEEaGgoHvKNH1c8rjGzdl4XNKRZV_Ez3i6Hm0_4unvhg/s1600/w11.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="614" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3cYJ89Ri-SXTSz07YDifxHYcNA4q4J9vljndy3c2vZSGoI_xLP3s9HxLSfsmCmFLpGAQsqVzv8LmTQfgwdX7UC611cC9INaHYHEEaGgoHvKNH1c8rjGzdl4XNKRZV_Ez3i6Hm0_4unvhg/s640/w11.JPG" width="640" /></a></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As you can see both plots show the warming which occurred
going into the 1930’s and the subsequent cooling trend from about 1950 forward.
However, the upper bound shows a marked increase from about 1970 forward. This
corresponds to a slight decrease in the lower bound. Both boundaries show a
period of warming from about 1996 forward. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This pattern is further demonstrated by data consisting of
station averages from 2000 to 2009. The indication is, relative to my 1900 to
1960 baseline, there has been an upward skewing of the data. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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o:title=""/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="mso-no-proof: yes;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Where does this trend originate<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">To answer that question, I broke the average down into its
component parts, the annual daily minimum and maximum averages. You will notice
the trend for maximum temperatures is close to zero overall. It shows the now
familiar warming trend into the 1930’s and the cooling after about 1950. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimdF2AY89TozqHV9QWJ2IiX0N7xxKcTTpviGb8a_B43VrNJpEe8rWdYVwBP0JbgRCOKYbJftHjvqYFy8UqBkr8hWNerDv51eStdahqkiENE1Vi5vA1LKJPsX__xlPyWb0NqhvNVjvBgFSh/s1600/w13.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="376" data-original-width="610" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimdF2AY89TozqHV9QWJ2IiX0N7xxKcTTpviGb8a_B43VrNJpEe8rWdYVwBP0JbgRCOKYbJftHjvqYFy8UqBkr8hWNerDv51eStdahqkiENE1Vi5vA1LKJPsX__xlPyWb0NqhvNVjvBgFSh/s640/w13.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">However, the minimums show a warming trend beginning after
1960 which is not evident in the plot above. Now you know why my choice of
baseline time frame makes sense. Remember, this has no affect upon the average.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyrUWWLbyXswCbQhIOPy-Q9oS_aB-ik0-XgdRyoZViVqCNsnyGXNHHcSj3V7npTcfK69bZoZRaG66mbEfKL02KgSoqkp_vhNI5cVYUaFyUXRxSAAcScb_WJGfqY7uubbZdaGMxXUdCnqih/s1600/w14.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="371" data-original-width="613" height="386" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyrUWWLbyXswCbQhIOPy-Q9oS_aB-ik0-XgdRyoZViVqCNsnyGXNHHcSj3V7npTcfK69bZoZRaG66mbEfKL02KgSoqkp_vhNI5cVYUaFyUXRxSAAcScb_WJGfqY7uubbZdaGMxXUdCnqih/s640/w14.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now we have established, for my 691 station sample, warming
after 1960 is almost exclusively associated with the night time lows. We can
account for this by development factors.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The following chart shows the results of a correlation study
between a development rating factor and the 2000’s average temperature. This
development factor is the width of proximate development in miles at the widest
point as measured on Google Earth. Since I have defined temperature as a
deviation from a 1900-1960 average the 2000’s average is also an average
deviation. There does appear to be evidence of correlation. I have a
correlation coefficient of 0.72 and a R squared value of .51.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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">
<v:imagedata src="file:///C:/Users/Sharon/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image028.png"
o:title=""/>
<o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="f"/>
</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--></span><o:p></o:p><br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This indicates warming is associated with development, warming
is limited to specific locations, warming is evident in the night time lows,
and no warming is evident in the daily highs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This result runs counter to the theory of warming due to
increased CO2.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">You can view the 691 sample sites for this study as well as
the 33 sites for the correlation study along with included data and information
in interactive map form at the following links.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1kBelP_3TizJKmma2f7OPVrPNl2LwICm7&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Daily Minimums</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1_E_4_QtY_wrDjfW66mMB1jeu49qF1RUQ&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Daily Maximums</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=1A3ke6LRCjUEQv4CXVHkG78VY20orqwaQ&usp=sharing" target="_blank">Correlation Study</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
</div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-681065908931203112018-10-19T13:54:00.001-07:002018-10-19T14:04:25.030-07:00A Rebuttal To NASA GISS Climate Change Claims<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">A week or so ago I was on the Twitter. Twitter was all a
flitter over the latest IPCC report saying we have just 10 more years to act or
the damages from climate changes would become irreversible. One of the people I
follow on Twitter is Scott Adams, the creator of the highly successful Dilbert
comics. Scott Adams is also a commentator on current events. He does these live
periscopes which are broadcast on Twitter and Youtube. The latest IPCC report
featured in one of his recent discussions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Naturally I opined with some data and observations to show
climate change, meaning the theory mankind is causing temperatures to rise
because of CO2 emissions, is a farce. Scott responded to me with the following
question, which I have paraphrased. Why should I believe you instead of all
these other people with reasonable arguments for climate change which I also
can’t evaluate? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">Let’s just say I did not respond very well to that question.
I worked for 25 years as a Senior Quality Engineer for a corporation which
manufactures products for direct to consumer use as well as to other
manufacturers all over the world. A company that generates nearly 2 billion in
sales annually. I am used to dealing with management on all levels. From
Engineers to Directors and VPs. I am used to being looked upon as someone who
is completely reliable. I am used to working with people who talk the language.
When I look at things like this the truth is generally as clear as it can be.
However, I forget the world at large does not deal in statistics, graphs, charts,
time lines, and the like.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">I will attempt to explain why I am convinced what NASA is
telling us about global warming or climate change is simply not true in a way I
hope Scott Adams would find persuasive. To make that argument I am focusing on
the temperature history of the United States. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The United States has the best, most complete temperature
records of any country in the world going back to the late 1800’s. The largest
repository of those records is the United States Historical Climatological Network
(the USHCN). The data I am showing comes from the USHCN database which I
downloaded from their FTP site<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn.html"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ushcn.html</span></a></span>).
For an overview of temperature recording stations around the world, see the
illustration included at the bottom of this article.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";">The argument I am going to make is actually very simple. It
is not possible to make this argument without using graphs, math, statistics, and
a smattering of physics. However, none of that is terribly complicated. You do
not need a degree in mathematics or chemistry to understand any of this. Let’s
get to it.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpSG1FLoOTYj-IC2aCyvhoosOBHzzoihXZsDzAcTIgTeZFsr4WVsCA7WQuajas76jV9RqGn7VwRJ7ojK3eITkcWnCDhXsaBwCcX7zinPaBbWfrz4CM0Q1ld3xlET6ZD7h1Xlf_PQb9aR6B/s1600/nasa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="761" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpSG1FLoOTYj-IC2aCyvhoosOBHzzoihXZsDzAcTIgTeZFsr4WVsCA7WQuajas76jV9RqGn7VwRJ7ojK3eITkcWnCDhXsaBwCcX7zinPaBbWfrz4CM0Q1ld3xlET6ZD7h1Xlf_PQb9aR6B/s400/nasa.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="color: black;">NASA GISS U.S. Temperature Record</span></div>
<div style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<u></u> </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">NASA is telling you temperatures in the US have
been steadily rising since 1980 because we are putting more CO2 into the
atmosphere. They are telling you CO2 is like the thermostat in your house. The
more CO2 we put in the air the warmer things get. The reason for this is CO2
traps infrared heat radiation coming from all the many surfaces which comprise
the landscape and bounces it back. This causes the surface to warm more than it
otherwise would. That is the simple explanation of the greenhouse effect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">NASA is also telling you this is a universal condition
because the amount of CO2 in the air above the US is the same everywhere. There
may be temporary local trends which diminish or enhance this effect, but
overall the trend is towards ever increasing temperatures.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";">NASA is telling you recent temperatures are on
average 1.5° C higher in recent years than the average temperature from 1951 to
1980.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZrElAdomILFX69GXkfKwTk2VGwTvQAiKWuTmCHrAjDJrjA4I0lHLM7Am38myR6n1TMtgHeb14aWYYypSHHd95IlKq3hBxhoW-JCcJng7bBAmBt2d3QyR38kGrnEE5VPDArcAYUx_03f6M/s1600/histogram.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="337" data-original-width="503" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZrElAdomILFX69GXkfKwTk2VGwTvQAiKWuTmCHrAjDJrjA4I0lHLM7Am38myR6n1TMtgHeb14aWYYypSHHd95IlKq3hBxhoW-JCcJng7bBAmBt2d3QyR38kGrnEE5VPDArcAYUx_03f6M/s400/histogram.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
DATA from USHCN<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->I am telling you when I look at the raw,
unadjusted data from the USHCN I find it contradicts NASA completely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->I am telling you I found very little change in
temperatures on average from the 1951 to 1980 average in recent years. That
change would be -0.2° C on average. However, I did find a considerable amount
of variation between locations. Roughly speaking, half the locations
experienced warming up to 3° C. The other half experienced cooling down to -4°
C. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->This isn’t fancy math or statistics. This is
simply taking averages from 1951 to 1980 and from 2000 to 2014, subtracting
them to get the difference, and making a histogram of the results. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->By the numbers 77.9% of stations were within ±
1° C and 99.7% of stations were with ± 2° C of their 1951 to 1980 averages.
That is close to a normal bell curve which you might remember from your high
school math classes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->NASA’s results do fall within the range of
variability of my results from the raw, unadjusted USHCN data. Their average
falls within the upper 12% of that range. The difference between their result
and my result statistically speaking is astronomical. Achieving their results
from the raw, unadjusted data would require large adjustments to the data. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To understand the magnitude of any adjustments
being made to a measurement it is best to relate those adjustments to the scale
and instrumentation used to create the original measurement. Temperature
records in the US were kept in degrees Fahrenheit. Most recent measurements use
the Celsius scale. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Achieving NASA’s
result would require adjustments to the temperature record with the overall
effect of increasing all recently recorded US temperatures from 2000 to 2014 unilaterally
by nearly 3° F or 1.5° C. That would be a very large adjustment indeed. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Most of the historical records were made using
glass thermometers, presumably with precision sufficient to read to the nearest
degree or half degree. The definition of precision is how finely graduated an
instrument is. You do not adjust for precision, you merely record to the limits
of the precision. Accuracy would depend entirely upon the specific thermometer
being used as well as whoever was taking the readings. The actual accuracy
would change each time a thermometer was replaced. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt 0.5in; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -0.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; font: 7pt/normal "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Speaking as a Quality Engineer who is well versed
in metrology and in analytics the idea of going back and adjusting measurements
years and decades after the fact is unheard of. It is something that is simply
not done unless you have a precise calibration record for each measuring device
used and can quantify precisely the amount and direction of inaccuracy every
time the device was used. In cases where you determine a device is inaccurate
without such precise records the only choice you have is to discard the record
if the amount of inaccuracy is unacceptable or leave it if the error is
something you can live with. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";">This completes the overview of my simple argument against
NASA’s version of the history of temperature in the United States. You simply
cannot say there is an overall warming effect detectable from increased CO2 in
the atmosphere in the United States when half the records show cooling trends
and the overall cooling is equal to or even greater than the overall warming. If
what NASA says about the history of temperature in the United States, which has
the most and longest records of any country in the world, is incorrect you have
to assume what NASA says about the rest of the world is incorrect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
Information from Seafriends.org.nz available at the
following link. I am only using portions of the page. The remainder is highly
informative on a variety of related subjects. I would recommend visiting.<o:p></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span class="MsoHyperlink"><a href="http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate3.htm#Thermometers"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/climate3.htm#Thermometers</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman";">
</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="Thermometer_locations"></a><b><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 107%;">Thermometer locations</span></b> </div>
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<br />
The places where thermometers are placed were never selected with a view of
collecting a representative set of temperatures from which the world's average
could be calculated. They are simply located where people live, and that
introduces the urban heat island effect. The two maps below, show that the
world is not adequately or evenly covered. To make matters worse, many
temperature stations are pretty recent and do not have a long-term record.
Others do not satisfy stringent quality requirements.</div>
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<o:p></o:p> </div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg79JlR0Kw-HuhH6H7ZVtVxulmVl5m8n-LAudS_ug81tta0OV6c4bEFlfj6l41_s3zBXAMpR5a27rR-EYeGzTzzrd1Kvar0jbZ-Rr3YWAKZQvnTADvs-C90mWhnBZOfeNJ6Ez4mhRSiWoMs/s1600/Capture.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="720" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg79JlR0Kw-HuhH6H7ZVtVxulmVl5m8n-LAudS_ug81tta0OV6c4bEFlfj6l41_s3zBXAMpR5a27rR-EYeGzTzzrd1Kvar0jbZ-Rr3YWAKZQvnTADvs-C90mWhnBZOfeNJ6Ez4mhRSiWoMs/s640/Capture.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-51596015740778952018-10-13T09:22:00.001-07:002018-10-13T09:22:10.825-07:00Fighting Nazis Right Here, in Toonigh<br />
One of the things that really surprised me about the Trump era was the sudden appearance of people fighting Nazis all over the place. I honestly didn't know Nazis were still a thing. Oh I know. A whole bunch of retired or now deceased news people warned us about the dangers of Nazis, Neo-Nazis, and Skinheads long ago. Luminaries from the golden age of broadcast news before it was watered down into 24 hours a day 7 days a week mediocrity. <br />
<br />
Guys like Dan Rather, Ted Koppel, and Morton Downey Jr.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbno6Y2CdF5gsdYYgmpFEDo7dSI_pf_mvPdmHB5hOuK8QdktrPiIZCWDKzAMLHm5hwF5De4xAO4ORnG1QdZI7-nHOAU6RxCNbJL6JeW805PO2rxNqhAq-VKddGyqRS77Mk6ToXSZxNI7jc/s1600/mdjr.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="268" data-original-width="477" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbno6Y2CdF5gsdYYgmpFEDo7dSI_pf_mvPdmHB5hOuK8QdktrPiIZCWDKzAMLHm5hwF5De4xAO4ORnG1QdZI7-nHOAU6RxCNbJL6JeW805PO2rxNqhAq-VKddGyqRS77Mk6ToXSZxNI7jc/s320/mdjr.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Apparently Nazis are just crawling around everywhere. Especially ever since Donald Trump announced his campaign back in 2015. It only seems to be this sudden thing. After all, look at who was warning us about it back when we just didn't want to believe.<br />
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That settles it for me. I decided to take the fight against these evil Nazis to my own town. I was going to get involved. However, I had a problem. I had no idea where to start. You see, our local chapter of the White Nationalist Democratic Socialist Worker's party, aka the Nazis, have never stopped by. I haven't seen so much as a flyer or even an article in the local newspaper. I have seen some decent recipes for pickles. I like pickles pretty good too. Especially home made with a bit of spicy to them. You would think having a bunch of Nazis running around might be just a tad bit more important than using fresh dill. Doesn't that stand to reason?<br />
<br />
So after long days of looking into it occasionally I finally found the location of our local branch of the White Nationalist Democratic Socialist Worker's party. That would be Nazis for short. It turns out it was pretty close to the house, over in the town of Toonigh. I won't say exactly where, but it lies somewhere between the Church of God and the QT station.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGZ-mx2V705YJ7gchbuAUb1b5AO9fEIPX3EuKgk9EXGXaN3h1tILemuHCez2dVV1an6q1wFFmEZ2HTljGF12pehOC7hH8fv8qoEjTFJxbMk2HSAGDPMQYELFJFtcQMPYVuxmwWlzELAyvX/s1600/toonigh.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="557" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGZ-mx2V705YJ7gchbuAUb1b5AO9fEIPX3EuKgk9EXGXaN3h1tILemuHCez2dVV1an6q1wFFmEZ2HTljGF12pehOC7hH8fv8qoEjTFJxbMk2HSAGDPMQYELFJFtcQMPYVuxmwWlzELAyvX/s400/toonigh.JPG" title="" width="400" /></a></div>
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Speaking of which, is it just me or has QT coffee lost a bit over the years? I will be the first to admit they have some pretty good doughnuts and apple fritters. I think they need to throw out their supply of coffee grounds and buy some fresh. I am just saying if I wanted bad hospital coffee I would catch pneumonia. <br />
<br />
It turns out the Toonigh branch of the Nazi party doesn't have a phone so I decided to just drop in. Which just about describes the whole thing perfectly. There, in the back of a converted chicken house with the words "Nazi meeting here" painted on one side, I found the local party representative. He was sitting in an old broken down Lazy Boy drinking PBR and smoking a Raleigh. Apparently the Toonigh branch of the Nazi party is a little short on propaganda funds. Instead of the framed portrait of Hitler, which I was expecting, they had drawn a picture of him on the wooden wall that once kept chickens from running amuck. It also turns out "they" is a bit of an exaggeration too. "They" turned out to be a fellow by the name of Field Marshal "Cooner" Bibb. <br />
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I asked "Cooner" how he came by the title of Field Marshal.<br />
<br />
"I was granted that title by a unanimous vote of the party members."<br />
<br />
Though I hated to do it, I asked how he came by the name "Cooner".<br />
<br />
"Cooner is what everyone calls me. It comes from an unfortunate incident way back in high school. See, there was this 'coon in a burlap sack which I had been lead to believe was a possum. It wouldn't have been so bad, 'cept the door handles in my truck were busted and I couldn't reach the handle to roll down the windows...."<br />
<br />
Sounds pretty exciting, I said, but I would really like to talk about your work for the Nazi party here in Toonigh.<br />
<br />
"Oh it was exciting! Anyway, I have been recruiting Nazis here ever since I graduated high school back in '73 and got married."<br />
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How do you go about recruiting members?<br />
<br />
"Well, I had a sign out by the mail box for a while, but the post rotted away so I painted it on the side of the party headquarters. And every day, 'specially when the wife gets mad, I come out here. I drink a bit, enjoy my smokes, and wait to see if anyone shows up."<br />
<br />
That doesn't appear to have been terribly a successful strategy.<br />
<br />
"Oh I don't know, it works pretty good for me. See, my wife don't like beer drinking and she doesn't want me to smoke in the house. So I come out here. And she hates Nazis. She don't want nothing to do with it. So everything just works out, you know?"<br />
<br />
I don't know about the rest of the country, but as for Toonigh Georgia? I think we are holding the line, keeping our Constitutional Republic safe from the scourge of Nations Socialist Worker's Parties and the like just fine.<br />
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-84854780799039018932018-09-19T07:53:00.005-07:002018-09-19T07:53:50.556-07:00Bella Nova, the Rescue Dog<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Bella Nova is our new baby. Bella is a rescue dog who came to us by way of my wife's uncle and his wife. They have fostered or taken in many a rescue dog. Bella was abandoned, locked up in a small chain link pen without food or water. According to the folks who originally rescued her, she had lived in that pen for about a year. She has obviously been abused. She is fearful of your hands moving towards her head. As if someone had been beating her. </div>
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Bella went from being rescued, to being caged up at the local vet's office, to being finally loved and cared for by Lynn and Theresa. She arrived there largely un-socialized and unused to trusting and being loved, but Lynn and Theresa have big hearts. So does Bella Nova. She is coming along quite admirably.</div>
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Now she is here with us. What she needs is love, attention, a little loving discipline, but most of all I think she needs stability. She needs to put down roots and draw from the well of kindness. A home in other words. A place where she knows she belongs and is wanted, valued, and yes, needed. Don't we all need that? </div>
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But we need more than just love and acceptance don't we? We also need play time.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dx_49xn3Ny25lv_ScKjnUxV0eQ39343gyEZZ0mY0k9WIzEbr3r4fO0qUMwt3HtqnbiiRWenMkqQpSbcaQyrNQ' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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So, that is the short story of how Bella Nova came to live here and be a part of our family. Even our kitty baby Baxter is beginning to get used to what he probably sees as her sudden arrival on the scene. It isn't as if you can explain to the kitties a new baby is coming. </div>
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The following is a copy and paste of a Facebook post I made this morning. </div>
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<span style="color: blue;">It is just me and the new dog, Bella Nova, this morning. She is a sweet dog, but she really has a bad case of separation anxiety. She wants to shadow you where ever you go. </span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> </span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> She discovered the doggie in the mirror this morning. She seemed quite confused for about 5 seconds. She then saw the guy in the mirror, did a double take between him and me, and then just ignored the whole thing. I think she figured out that was me. No, I don't think she figured out what a mirror is and <span class="text_exposed_hide">...</span><span class="text_exposed_show">how it works. I think she figured my double just didn't matter because he wasn't going to feed her anytime soon. However that works out, she is pretty smart.</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> She also acted like she had never seen anyone in the shower before. That entire water falling from the wall, splashing on the glass, running out through a hole in the floor thing seemed to have her spooked. She kept running out and running back in and looking at the shower floor. Like "where does it all come from?" Then she seemed to be completely shocked at my stepping out all wet and everything. Human skin must look pretty bare to a dog. All those drops of water running down....how does that work?</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> </span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> It shocked the fire out of me when she decided to check it out a little closer and licked my butt cheek. I really didn't see that coming, though I shoulda. Lacey, the chihuahua, would lick the water off your feet. As if shower water on toes was just the yummiest treat evah. Honestly, it wasn't the worst thing to have ever happened. Even so, I hope her curiosity has been well and completely satisfied.</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> </span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"> Like I said, she is a sweet dog. She is now napping on the sofa after a full morning of discovery and doggie duty.</span></div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-1987017041691142492018-09-12T07:13:00.002-07:002018-09-12T07:13:37.230-07:00Hillary Lies. A Lot.<div class="text_exposed_root text_exposed" id="id_5b991de0128a76f78315797">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHkhTNf7vUncuL2fzyj37rSwGPKp1JDhgoXs90sCvyV6NrUt9lQUn4Vh-8whUqoQ3gyTuQp-CvUb0eSkdoVsvg79p_Ijm2LZl0IRINvXbXooSfw2lUqg6iu_2WAFxFO7s8v-PFvQZy4Zb/s1600/biglie.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="603" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhHkhTNf7vUncuL2fzyj37rSwGPKp1JDhgoXs90sCvyV6NrUt9lQUn4Vh-8whUqoQ3gyTuQp-CvUb0eSkdoVsvg79p_Ijm2LZl0IRINvXbXooSfw2lUqg6iu_2WAFxFO7s8v-PFvQZy4Zb/s640/biglie.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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I actually follow a number of different people on Twitter. People who are of different political persuasions. I like to keep a decent balance. And I look for people who offer well thought out commentary.<br />
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And I also follow Hillary. The interesting thing, as far as I am concerned, is Hillary is still campaigning. Whether that is the 2016 or the 2020, that's up to her. But she sounds like someone who is campaigning. <br />
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The other interesting thing about Hillary is she lies. A lot. <span class="text_exposed_hide">...</span><span class="text_exposed_show">This example is typical for her. In fact, this is a prototypical lie for politicians and the media alike. I am pointing this out because it serves as a great example of how these jackals yank your chain. Never mind this is Hillary, the democrats, and the liberal mainstream media. That is of lesser importance to understanding the methods they use.</span><br />
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What did Kavanaugh really say?<br />
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"They said filling out the form would make them complicit in the provision of the abortion-inducing drugs that they were, as a religious matter, objecting to." <br />
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He was repeating the argument made in an actual case filing made by an organization called Priests for Life in response to a question from Ted Cruz.<br />
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But Kamala Harris (also a massive liar) and the mainstream media (ditto) cut the context and the full statement down to an 11 second video clip where he said:<br />
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"Filling out the form would make them complicit in the provision of the abortion-inducing drugs that they were, as a religious matter, objected to."<br />
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So you know he really said that, you saw the clip didn't you? So get angry folks, this is proof Kavanaugh is a misogynist, racist, a Nazi.<br />
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Right?<br />
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No. This is proof of something just about 180° from that. This is proof "THEY" think YOU are stupid and easily manipulated.<br />
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This is why I fight. I will not accept this as normal. From anyone.</div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-46812544314635453352018-09-11T08:40:00.002-07:002018-09-11T08:40:55.673-07:00Thoughts On 9/11/2018A lot of people around our country and no doubt around the world are saying and writing about the events of this day seventeen years ago. Remembering. Honoring. I too am reflecting as well, though my thoughts probably run just a bit differently than most. Which is perhaps not unusual.<br />
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I am thinking about the spectacles more recently past. The Kavanaugh confirmation. The Manafort trial. The Papadopolous sentencing. The 2016 election. It seems to me something is rotten in the State of Denmark. Though perhaps we as a nation have not quite put our finger on where the rot really lives. <br />
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It is in my mind to say this. It is always a mistake to assume those who scream the loudest represent the majority. This is the power of lunatic fringes. They make a lot of noise and smoke. It is also a mistake to assume the majority of what you see on TV and cable news presents an accurate reflection of reality. It does not. It does represent a majority of opinion within those organizations. If that opinion is only based upon what will generate the best ratings as opposed to ideological homogeneity, which many suspect, it doesn't really matter. The results are the same. The power of the media also lies in their ability to make a lot of noise and smoke. <br />
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Neither of these things, the screaming of the enraged or the preponderance of pomposity from the self proclaimed pundits, necessarily represents anything approaching a true consensus. <br />
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I am also thinking about the days and months leading up to the 2012 election. I am thinking of the a particular instance which to me represented a moment of remarkable insight. I had chanced upon a forum on the internet where people were discussing, among other things, the imminent impeachment of Barack Obama. They certainly had done their research. They recited the many charges chapter and verse. Of course one of those issues involved questions as to his citizenship and eligibility to even be president. <br />
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I had not really given much credence or thought to that particular charge, but what I saw made me curious. So I did some research on the subject with respect to law and precedent. What I found was clear. Even if Barack Obama had been born in Kenya it wouldn't have mattered one bit. His mother was an American citizen. Because of that, no matter where he was born, Obama is also a natural born US citizen with no need to become naturalized. There are only two kinds of US citizens, natural born or naturalized. <br />
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So I jumped back into this forum. I presented the facts along with links to and excerpts from the statutes. Would you like to guess the reaction I received? If you guessed complete and absolute denial you would be right. No one even acknowledged my comments. They simply refused to listen. <br />
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Why? Because the unreality, the fantasy if you will, had become too important. It had become a part of their identity. They had become blind to any other truth but their own. <br />
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I honestly see no real difference between what I saw and experienced leading up to the 2012 election and what I see today in the wake of the 2016 election, except for one thing. Back then the media acted to shut down the lunatic fringe. By ignoring them or actively demonizing them and anything they had to say, even if some of it was true. They also actively worked to associate those who were speaking truth or who simply did not agree with that lunatic fringe and demonize them by that association. The media also acted to actively support what the Obama administration said as truth, to positively spin any misstatement, to deflect any attack, to down play any lie exposed, to defend any failure. <br />
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Today the media is playing an entirely different role. No theory or story is too wild or outrageous. That which is unsubstantiated is substantiated because it aligns with their opinion. They substantiate it by printing it or stating it as truth. They are only to happy to broadcast or print anything as true as long as it matches their opinion, as long as it promotes their aims. They have spun anything they possibly could into a negative. They have trumpeted any misstep as a catastrophe. Everything is the end of the world. Every right is in danger and people will die. <br />
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It has become clear the media has purpose, a purpose which really has very little to do with truth. <br />
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We have entered the era of supposition as fact, the era of naked bias. The era of half truths, that most insidious of all lies. The era of the retraction issued half heartedly, late, or not at all. The era of the media trying to construct the appearance of the reality they wish to bring into being.<br />
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Or perhaps we have existed in that era all along. It has only now become manifestly evident and is only becoming more so with each passing day. <br />
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-74027418857034441352018-06-22T11:57:00.002-07:002018-06-22T11:57:59.378-07:00How George Bush, Barrack Obama, and SCOTUS Created the Current Immigration Crisis<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
I have been watching the current discourse on illegal immigration in the US with great interest and often with rising anger. My anger is not against those of us who are passionate on the subject. My anger is with the media and the politicians. They are not being above board. They are not presenting the full picture, misrepresenting what is going on in fact, to promote their own agenda. To defeat Trump in the mid terms. To support Trump in the mid terms. Either way, you, the voter, are being screwed.</div>
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How difficult is it for professional news people to present the entire picture? How many people are apprehended, detained, deported, granted asylum, and so forth for each year since 1997? Come on! All they do is show you bits and pieces that are true enough, but lack the full picture to provide context. They are stoking your anger on purpose. The fact we can't rely upon the main stream media to present an honest, factual, and complete picture so we the people are truly informed is a real danger to our republic. </div>
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I am going to present what I see is a more complete and therefore more accurate picture. I am also providing supporting articles. </div>
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First off, this crisis is not new. The pictures you see of people behind chain link fencing and barbed wire are not new. George W Bush was lambasted for his handling of illegal immigration and so was Barrack Obama. Quite strenuously in fact. You will find plenty of supporting articles below. If you look for yourself you will find plenty more. </div>
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The current crisis Trump is dealing with was created by those who came before. I could go back to even further, but the start of the current crisis actually began in 1988 with the Flores case. This case was finally decided by the Supreme Court in 1993. The key point which impacts the situation today is the decision to limit the amount of time an unaccompanied minor can be held to about 20 days. They have to be deported, returned, or released. </div>
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Obama was famous in certain circles for instituting the program of catch and release. According to many sources the Obama administration released 75% of the illegals without pursuing deportation. That included at least 68,000 with existing criminal records in the US. However, Obama wasn't the first to pursue this policy. That was actually George W Bush. Apparently PBS and other liberal outlets had no problem castigating GW Bush for this policy being a disaster. As PBS noted, while this policy was in effect illegal entry across the border surged. </div>
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In 2008 George W Bush signed into law a bipartisan bill that required a full immigration hearing for any unaccompanied minors seized at the border who did not come from either Mexico or Canada. Also under this law, immigrant minors from central America must be transferred to DHHS with 72 hours of the apprehension. After this law was signed into effect the illegal immigrant crises exploded. From fewer than 5,000 children in 2008 to nearly 75,000 in 2013. It is important to note none of this impacts anyone from Mexico. It applies only to countries below Mexico.</div>
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From 2012 or 2013 forward, the Obama administration responded to the crisis by building or appropriating existing structures to serve as family detention centers. This was met with stiff resistance from pro immigrant groups, progressives, the ACLU, and other groups. Issues with such detention centers being unsafe, unsanitary, and lacking in basic requirements to meet the needs those held were raised under Obama just as they had been under GW Bush. Ultimately most family detention centers were sheltered.</div>
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The final factor which helped created this crisis is the practice of releasing families into the general population if they have children. This was done throughout the Obama years with most of these families disappearing and never being seen before an immigration judge. This is well documented. What is not well documented is when this practice began. I am inclined to suspect it began during the illegal surge created by GW Bush with his catch and release policies.</div>
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One thing appears obvious to me. People in central America and Mexico appear to follow the changes in our laws and in our practices quite well. Changes in policy or law here result in changes to the numbers of people coming to our borders. No doubt they are watching the current situation quite closely.</div>
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It should also be obvious detaining people as a family units was not acceptable to the left, even when done by the left. Which is admirably consistent. However, now we find detaining minors separate from their family is also unacceptable. So that leaves catch and release, where 97% just disappear and never face an immigration judge. That is unacceptable as well. These policies helped create the crisis in the first place. </div>
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What we have and have had for the past three decades is unacceptable. The actions or previous administrations only made things worse. Unrestricted immigration and illegal immigration are hugely unpopular with the majority of Americans on both sides. We don't want it. We want the crises ended, we want illegal immigration stopped. Which means doing away with the failed policies of the past, the Flores agreement, and the 2008 immigration law. Good intentions do not mitigate bad results and if what you do creates bad results you have to do something else. </div>
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New York Times February 2007 </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/10/us/10detain.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Link to Article</span></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQSrM-GxE396CaNYsqGX-6LqeeovtlWlT24fU_vubJ9Lw4CjLi73-BygIp4mgNhGsblGBhu2H78eRmPs9wj3hqxppFdR63mGYxknVHv4Ml4oHIWLkUf_etG32XHvoYWChrYh4wJ5prNtXE/s1600/1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="199" data-original-width="636" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQSrM-GxE396CaNYsqGX-6LqeeovtlWlT24fU_vubJ9Lw4CjLi73-BygIp4mgNhGsblGBhu2H78eRmPs9wj3hqxppFdR63mGYxknVHv4Ml4oHIWLkUf_etG32XHvoYWChrYh4wJ5prNtXE/s640/1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span> </div>
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The Least of These - March 2007 </div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://theleastofthese-film.com/familydetention/alternatives/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Link to Article</span></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgNoT83-QaByU1eE7Xqmf7fsNNrPWF9vmmaKmKJn85K69L1_gmTmf5aOuXuKIOKKItl76huMqJG3UwlHBijTVD396UnKYX_mY8pV6DAmuE60s3KPwAJ_5trvh8RHBRDwVaofjrywyp2iO/s1600/2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="321" data-original-width="465" height="441" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgNoT83-QaByU1eE7Xqmf7fsNNrPWF9vmmaKmKJn85K69L1_gmTmf5aOuXuKIOKKItl76huMqJG3UwlHBijTVD396UnKYX_mY8pV6DAmuE60s3KPwAJ_5trvh8RHBRDwVaofjrywyp2iO/s640/2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The ACLU - December 2010</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.aclu.org/blog/speakeasy/bait-and-switch-one-family-detention-center-closes-another-opens" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Link to Article</span></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjllJcrP0ie67enj1pGU6LEOsUhBWHS-EouOS5sfltcM4k7RC8LacfxSydtCD0h5aHMhyfLSvdHWrS9xoyk6w5vSxavC_whq_s7IeOajJL6zHlFlAXPnd4OR146Ol8_ssAcc5M0npUdWAfb/s1600/3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="112" data-original-width="624" height="115" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjllJcrP0ie67enj1pGU6LEOsUhBWHS-EouOS5sfltcM4k7RC8LacfxSydtCD0h5aHMhyfLSvdHWrS9xoyk6w5vSxavC_whq_s7IeOajJL6zHlFlAXPnd4OR146Ol8_ssAcc5M0npUdWAfb/s640/3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The Atlanta Journal Constitution - November 2014</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ice-close-controversial-immigration-detention-center-new-mexico/ixmFHpSxN6hzUw3LAg3KzK/" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Link to Article</span></a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXr7U-Vaclr6xwCgT2_S1cUKzfp_7sqpydtMupubhjLmDhrMNZ4hD2TPF89IRfnUGsn_bQ6kARm_GPeZw-okVQ1WSMe4fvmduwImGqu63utbOlSZkGiW-7ZIaCWjphW85_Qp__fCszXbgy/s1600/4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="624" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXr7U-Vaclr6xwCgT2_S1cUKzfp_7sqpydtMupubhjLmDhrMNZ4hD2TPF89IRfnUGsn_bQ6kARm_GPeZw-okVQ1WSMe4fvmduwImGqu63utbOlSZkGiW-7ZIaCWjphW85_Qp__fCszXbgy/s640/4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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MSNBC - November 2014</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/plans-works-immigrant-family-detention-center" target="_blank"><span style="color: #0563c1;">Link to Article</span></a></span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRfJCS7VLpkyKgCaCcWEFYJ9h14sZgiP58bRCZw0YWCBjgF1sL5qVd19T0gDrleezFOKFONjKtUSQqckuYx0Nhs01_7Nnd7hm3_PLmUbVbhr3MyE-1v57_7ZF5HbvMtOJIzkyHIgKOsu3A/s1600/5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="624" height="481" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRfJCS7VLpkyKgCaCcWEFYJ9h14sZgiP58bRCZw0YWCBjgF1sL5qVd19T0gDrleezFOKFONjKtUSQqckuYx0Nhs01_7Nnd7hm3_PLmUbVbhr3MyE-1v57_7ZF5HbvMtOJIzkyHIgKOsu3A/s640/5.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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CNBC - June 2014</div>
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The Guardian - July 2014</div>
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NBC News - July 2014</div>
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Find Law - 2015</div>
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Detention Watch Network - 2017</div>
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NOLO - June 2012</div>
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ACLU - January 2013</div>
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Huffington Post - November 2012</div>
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CIS - March 2014</div>
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Washington Times - March 2014</div>
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PBS - June 2014</div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-43593172499246642342018-04-04T16:02:00.000-07:002018-04-04T16:02:07.140-07:00GHCN Part 9: A look at the Daily Minimums Debunks a Basic Assumption of Global WarmingIn today's post on the Global Historical Climatology Data I am going to concentrate on daily minimum temperatures for long term stations in North America and Europe. As I mentioned last time the coverage is heavily weighted to the US. <br />
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In my last post I talked about the high amount of variance between stations. I conjectured most of those variances were due to localized site changes such as development. I believe that is a safe conjecture.<br />
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However, looking at daily minimums yields a different picture. The by site variation is there but it is not as pronounced. The standard deviation of the average of annual station average is only .46. That is a very reasonable value in comparison to my previous data set. The annual range between highest and lowest deviation from station average is consistent on average. <br />
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The following chart is the difference by year between the highest and lowest temperatures records for all stations in the study. While there is some variation over time the key point is the lack of any clear trend on average. There is a fluctuation in the magnitude of in year variation but that appears to be due to weather events with in the US in the form of hot and cold waves. Because the data is heavily weighted to the US it is sensitive to such events in the US.<br />
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This is the average daily minimum temperature record for all stations as mentioned above. It is a reasonable approximation of individual station records. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQU2HrSDdPgHH1xBhSFmjmHHdu6VTP-ASnvZ-tpsEk1uqUCbd8-zTgk1gjRM5E9oMNG1gJ8JVePzq9Psz3BfXZtGeBgT4J9wlgjDmQ7UitGaRuYX5SY39MjY0eYhvzQc5RH-u0gZ1WD7U/s1600/avg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="335" data-original-width="740" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSQU2HrSDdPgHH1xBhSFmjmHHdu6VTP-ASnvZ-tpsEk1uqUCbd8-zTgk1gjRM5E9oMNG1gJ8JVePzq9Psz3BfXZtGeBgT4J9wlgjDmQ7UitGaRuYX5SY39MjY0eYhvzQc5RH-u0gZ1WD7U/s640/avg.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The following graph may grab your interest if you are familiar with statistics, especially that brand of statistics used in Quality Engineering. If you are interested in the technique you can Google search for Statistical Process Control. This is a well established methodology which has been in use since the 1950's. <br />
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What you see here is my twist on the method. I have transposed the data shown in the preceding chart by converting it to standard deviations with the overall average normalized to zero. This is nothing more than a graphical test for equality of the means. Confidence intervals are thus easily defined, such as ± 1.96 standard deviations form a 95% confidence interval. The second key indicator of a shift in the mean is the number of consecutive points above or below the zero line. <br />
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There is no question about the clear signal of a pattern here. There are also clear evidence of extreme events occurring in 1904, 1917, 1921, 1931, and 1998. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgse6NmS6QNlCGA2ZiySv0slJyIimjnkpLUjH_wD6KsGLRtLnefuYSXKuZQ6Gpm1ty7oL-5envE7rI26zeXrk1Qok9l9z4UlpXusAYZwZFeeqYGv2QZVclPm2gYTWHoIC8L5OwGq-JuKdvp/s1600/Stnorm.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="700" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgse6NmS6QNlCGA2ZiySv0slJyIimjnkpLUjH_wD6KsGLRtLnefuYSXKuZQ6Gpm1ty7oL-5envE7rI26zeXrk1Qok9l9z4UlpXusAYZwZFeeqYGv2QZVclPm2gYTWHoIC8L5OwGq-JuKdvp/s640/Stnorm.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Thus far I see no reason to doubt the veracity or accuracy of these extreme events. They appear to be accurate. They are, however, out of the ordinary. The other interesting observation is how the year to year variability decreased going into the 1940's and then again in the 1960's. That variability increases coming into the 1970's. That is reflected in the chart of annual ranges above.<br />
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The conclusions I draw are as follows:<br />
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<li>There is evidence of a regular pattern about 60 or so years in length. </li>
<li>There is no statistically significant difference between the 1900's and the 1960's. Using my normalized data, the 1960's is warmer by 0.07 standard deviations. This is insignificant.</li>
<li>There is no significant difference between the 1930's and either the 1990's or the 2000's. The 1930's are warmer than either by .08 standard deviations. This is insignificant.</li>
<li>If this pattern holds true I would expect to see a low point going into the 2020's. This does appear to be happening, but I would be very careful drawing conclusions from short term data. However, similarities do exist between 1931 to 1942 and 1998 to 2007.</li>
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Finally, the last question is why would the daily low temperatures show such a different result? I will hazard a few guesses:<br />
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<li>Daily lows must be unaffected for the most part by site changes which cause higher day time temperatures. </li>
<li>Structures and surfaces added to a site cause increased temperature due to differences in absorbed energy and in heat capacity or specific heat. Lower heat capacity or specific heat means surfaces and objects achieve a higher temperature for the same energy absorbed than surfaces and objects with higher heat capacities or specific heats. That generally means they cool off more quickly as well. Therefore the extra heat is not retained. </li>
<li>The effect just described above is the opposite effect where specific heat is relatively higher. The best example of that effect is water. Water in either liquid or gas form has a much higher specific heat than a normal atmospheric gas mixture, concrete, brick, shingles, and so forth. A body of water not only stays cooler during the day than what is on the land, it also cools off much slower. </li>
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The lowest temperature of a typical day in most locations normally occurs within an hour of sunrise. In order to systematically affect the daily minimum temperature objects, structures, and surfaces that would retain or produce heat must be added to the site. That is possible, certainly adding a pond or lake next to a climate station could have such an affect.<br />
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<strong>Conclusion:</strong><br />
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This result and the obviously different outcome from my prior study supports the supposition most instances of higher than typical temperature increases are due to site changes as described above. <br />
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I would further conclude the daily minimum temperatures provide a far more accurate picture of what is happening with respect to the anthropogenic global warming theory. <br />
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The lack of any evidence of a change in heat retained over night, if correct, would debunk the concept added CO2 is causing the surface of the Earth to warm up due to downward IR. The logic behind this assertion is simple. If CO2 truly did act as a greenhouse or a blanket to retard cooling that effect would be demonstrable in progressively higher overnight temperatures. There is no evidence that has occurred.<br />
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You could conjecture as to whether or not temperatures have increase during those overnight hours which precede the daily low point. This data does not address that conjecture.<br />
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Until the next time.......<br />
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-86745568241321735142018-04-01T07:54:00.001-07:002018-04-01T08:51:57.097-07:00GHCN Post 8: North America and Europe or It Varies. A Lot.<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
This is my eighth post in this series. I would encourage anyone to start at the first post and go forward. However, this post will serve as a stand alone document. In this post I have taken my experience in exploring the history of Australia and applied it forward to cover North America and Europe. </div>
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The way to view this study is literally a statistic based survey of the data. Meaning I have created a statistic to quantify, rank, and categorize the data. My statistic is very straight forward. It is simply the net change in temperature between the first and last 10 years of 1900 through 2011 for each station.</div>
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Below is a list of countries showing the lowest net change, the highest net change, and the number of stations per country.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4rBZllp79UUBDb5F2gZfMAeu0X7Bb0ZN5ZFzRmG_eSk1uyFpt68rjCcsUinxMxmCXG0ShDCXnzJ_OTl4a52MOLpR3yk3Lu7GTFDIO4GrGlRVfeNZYlum-aG-_6VdzTqh5sBZ3Tp-zCyX/s1600/NH1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="281" data-original-width="554" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS4rBZllp79UUBDb5F2gZfMAeu0X7Bb0ZN5ZFzRmG_eSk1uyFpt68rjCcsUinxMxmCXG0ShDCXnzJ_OTl4a52MOLpR3yk3Lu7GTFDIO4GrGlRVfeNZYlum-aG-_6VdzTqh5sBZ3Tp-zCyX/s400/NH1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This is an old fashioned histogram showing how the stations ranked in terms of over all temperature change. This shows the data falls in a bell shaped curve. The underlying distribution is very close to normal. This means analysis using normal techniques will yield very reasonable estimates. This is significant to a statistician. However, you don't need any statistical knowledge to understand this.</div>
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The mid line value is between -0.5° and 0.5°. The number of stations showing a overall drop in temperature is 40%. Slightly less than 60% of the stations show an increase. The absolute change is statistically insignificant in 74.6% of the stations. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aWau-oDmNjS34-ci1ssp1xc6E0sa-akI9_FubniMHEnPyKYpQWHIjVeZJns57gHRm6jy2gOBAx5TUry0IAA1BygrNqmXa3tLDoOI5HEvIeekCMGkJQG0N4Zr5IuoYQT62awrkA9ItYT9/s1600/NH2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="434" data-original-width="745" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8aWau-oDmNjS34-ci1ssp1xc6E0sa-akI9_FubniMHEnPyKYpQWHIjVeZJns57gHRm6jy2gOBAx5TUry0IAA1BygrNqmXa3tLDoOI5HEvIeekCMGkJQG0N4Zr5IuoYQT62awrkA9ItYT9/s640/NH2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The following graph shows a normalized look at each category: No significant change, significant warming, and significant cooling. The graph is of rolling 10 year averages. Each plot has been normalized to show the 1900 - 1910 average as zero.<br />
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You will note, though the overall slope of each plot is significantly different, the shape of the plots are nearly identical. A random sampling of individual station data shows that condition remains true for each station in the range. For example, Denmark's Greenland station shows the 1990 - 2000 average is the same as the 1930 - 1940 average.<br />
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Short term changes, such as the warming into the 1930's, hold true for the vast majority of stations. Other examples of this would be the 1940's temperature jump, the post 1950 temperature drop, and the late 1990's temperature jump.<br />
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Long term changes vary significantly. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b5dO-EXfN69cJlzyad7YXwcXXO9rUko66J8JrX96cFbL98UO7JlW8Bll5UhqnG3gU8LqFgEUK6-C40AU7IoX-3dHMup4KjXn9wEmb_XaqNIRLGQS8e1CgAdAsz2lOTds0AZRh5B4U3l3/s1600/NH4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="422" data-original-width="828" height="326" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-b5dO-EXfN69cJlzyad7YXwcXXO9rUko66J8JrX96cFbL98UO7JlW8Bll5UhqnG3gU8LqFgEUK6-C40AU7IoX-3dHMup4KjXn9wEmb_XaqNIRLGQS8e1CgAdAsz2lOTds0AZRh5B4U3l3/s640/NH4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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There are a number of conclusions to be drawn from this analysis. </div>
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There is no statistically significant difference between North America and Europe. Those stations showing significant cooling are just 8% of the total. By that statistic, the expected number of the 17 European stations to show cooling would be just one. The number expected to show significant warming would be three. From a statistical sampling standpoint, 17 is just not a robust enough sample size to yield accurate estimates. </div>
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Short term changes which appear in the vast number of stations from Canada to the US to Europe are probably hemispheric changes. However, there is no indication these are global changes as there is no evidence of similar changes in Australia. Australia did not experience a 1930's warming trend for example. In fact, the overall pattern in Australia is obviously different from what we see here.</div>
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The evidence strongly suggests the large variation in overall temperature trends is due to either regional or local factors. As shown in the data table at the beginning, the extremes in variation all come from the US. As noted before, there just aren't enough samples from Europe to form accurate estimates for low percentage conditions. </div>
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Further evidence suggests most of the differences in overall temperature change are due to local factors. What we see from the US is extreme warming is generally limited to areas with high population growth or high levels of development. Large cities such as San Diego, Washington DC, and Phoenix follow the pattern of significant change. Airports also follow this pattern. However, cities like New Orleans, St Louis, El Paso, and Charleston follow the pattern of no significant change.</div>
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<strong>In Conclusion, based upon the available long term temperature data the case for global warming is very weak. There is evidence to suggest a hemispheric pattern exists. The evidence further suggest this is a cyclical pattern which is evident in localized temperature peaks in the 1930's and the 1990's. However, changes in local site conditions due to human development appear to be the most important factor affecting overall temperature changes. Extreme warming trends are almost certainly due to human induced local changes.</strong> </div>
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What is unclear at this point is the significance of lower levels of human induced local changes. Assessing this would require examining individual sites to identify a significant sample of sites with no changes. Unfortunately, the US, Canada, and Europe are not nearly as obliging on that kind of information as the Aussies are. I have to admit the Australians have done an excellent job of making site information available. Having the actual coordinates to where the actual testing station resides made that easy. I literally pulled them up on Google Maps and was able to survey the site and surrounding areas. </div>
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It appears this is about as far down the rabbit hole as I am going to get, at least, not without a lot of work which at this point doesn't appear warranted.</div>
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Until next time......</div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-53581484888141811162018-03-31T13:55:00.000-07:002018-03-31T15:16:19.402-07:00GHCN Part 7: Australian Temperature Record 1985 - 2011Before I begin I will briefly recap previous posts in the series. I am looking at the temperature records contained in the Global Historical Climatology Network. I have focused myself on Australia as a test case to develop my process. There are only 10 stations with long term records from Australia in the GHCN data set. <br />
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As I mentioned in a previous post, I found the data from the station located in Robe Australia to be unusable because of serious site contamination. Meaning what once was probably a rural area is now a business district. It is surrounded by concrete, buildings, AC units, and other objects which could influence the measurements. All of this is easily detectable in the data.<br />
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After reviewing each site and reviewing the data I rejected 7 out of 10 sites as unusable. Below are pictures of representative sites I rejected.<br />
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The following are from the town of Hobart.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2lnf6CcK0WgucSMwaiA_n3iO0ftpKjHGD8BBi9lmn1sDxQvubM6FH7UCcYtPJHYB4dlhDoWgRbgcos0Z4F0CdNN6bbQmejli_DzhKmooCy8oJld3-uCE5Ra03KzNd_7r0SBRAMcmrXc0v/s1600/HO1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="1306" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2lnf6CcK0WgucSMwaiA_n3iO0ftpKjHGD8BBi9lmn1sDxQvubM6FH7UCcYtPJHYB4dlhDoWgRbgcos0Z4F0CdNN6bbQmejli_DzhKmooCy8oJld3-uCE5Ra03KzNd_7r0SBRAMcmrXc0v/s640/HO1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQnzxeq1l0QynSzgz4UI_i3QB-_VLfBRpkseSGFNjPNKJoY9RSMzwQrj6tA9hPJ9xhBwXEgHOKqlxLZ4HAJXftvYtBUJAgFTqq0ANtQUXN30VT8dbIk0AL2Se5MktAM907NV02Ycit_Dp/s1600/HO2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="624" data-original-width="1310" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKQnzxeq1l0QynSzgz4UI_i3QB-_VLfBRpkseSGFNjPNKJoY9RSMzwQrj6tA9hPJ9xhBwXEgHOKqlxLZ4HAJXftvYtBUJAgFTqq0ANtQUXN30VT8dbIk0AL2Se5MktAM907NV02Ycit_Dp/s640/HO2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9YBueIDM6n_FLajOS6joAeQbVc2aPDbompiujiA2VaFEp9QRJrqSfeDYtyQAjdLVeUKldOm0G8mzBQIg2C9ZXbQMB7qIIa1tt_khlEyiAn39LWfaaVy2GDv94wW4Aek-pEJ_D9K0E6i37/s1600/HO3a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="636" data-original-width="1366" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9YBueIDM6n_FLajOS6joAeQbVc2aPDbompiujiA2VaFEp9QRJrqSfeDYtyQAjdLVeUKldOm0G8mzBQIg2C9ZXbQMB7qIIa1tt_khlEyiAn39LWfaaVy2GDv94wW4Aek-pEJ_D9K0E6i37/s640/HO3a.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The station at Hobart is surrounded by buildings in what appears to be an industrial or business area. <br />
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These are pictures of the station located in Diniliquin</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17kOnYcC7ijwx4BOaR4ViIWkJfwZN9oJEpI1So4dKjMCnKYlSLVh_T-jNYgpdSGlm-Lv45Z4pAcC-r7Pm-_CF0dw10jGBH4RoYJU0NFwisTSjtrWYMnE4cLvtZhkJ3KEXyjOU4ile6p4H/s1600/DE1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="853" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj17kOnYcC7ijwx4BOaR4ViIWkJfwZN9oJEpI1So4dKjMCnKYlSLVh_T-jNYgpdSGlm-Lv45Z4pAcC-r7Pm-_CF0dw10jGBH4RoYJU0NFwisTSjtrWYMnE4cLvtZhkJ3KEXyjOU4ile6p4H/s640/DE1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbfqARhYWxx-hX4rnp1UQhO0uRQCr9TFNGyGZUJZ0xiDyPsB21uFH3eObq6P2g2VA9B3gsucsWWDvdqV8Kalde41RuZd5nzgLnE1mZzAGp_P0G-Ju1nZO1Zpkbx0uxmAWlPAIrv_cmD8XK/s1600/DE2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="839" height="466" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbfqARhYWxx-hX4rnp1UQhO0uRQCr9TFNGyGZUJZ0xiDyPsB21uFH3eObq6P2g2VA9B3gsucsWWDvdqV8Kalde41RuZd5nzgLnE1mZzAGp_P0G-Ju1nZO1Zpkbx0uxmAWlPAIrv_cmD8XK/s640/DE2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This station is located almost in a court yard at the edge of a large development. However, this is one of the sites which had an unusual cooling trend. One of the things which jump out at me are how shadows from nearby trees and buildings come close to the station location. <br />
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The next set of pictures is from Observatory Hill in Sydney.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh94BN8DIeiIknWApszvUSsyi83yq4RpAifx1vl8KX8OjghmjggD02rvnxfXxIzXEqOgLQ85rIxYLBKlbeOUGHTm3VekKa5vTAx4EkaiG-5XPsOEW033xh9SLg_PfkYWV_oQEFngo0aHkWj/s1600/sy1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="625" data-original-width="845" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh94BN8DIeiIknWApszvUSsyi83yq4RpAifx1vl8KX8OjghmjggD02rvnxfXxIzXEqOgLQ85rIxYLBKlbeOUGHTm3VekKa5vTAx4EkaiG-5XPsOEW033xh9SLg_PfkYWV_oQEFngo0aHkWj/s640/sy1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEideloLzZbHKh9O-VdYpsMpmFnl5j1ERlE1LJK56GXac2gDE23pFfnM8ny9tazSzs-qCS5b4YJIk1RjQORuO3SZCbGnsvJj2zehl9TVIB0p7qOySwQeO8qud1NAeIWoG8v9fbH8wdUhUmw7/s1600/sy2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1348" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEideloLzZbHKh9O-VdYpsMpmFnl5j1ERlE1LJK56GXac2gDE23pFfnM8ny9tazSzs-qCS5b4YJIk1RjQORuO3SZCbGnsvJj2zehl9TVIB0p7qOySwQeO8qud1NAeIWoG8v9fbH8wdUhUmw7/s640/sy2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This station is in a partial enclosed space, close to a brick wall and several electrical boxes. There are tall buildings nearby. The entire are is surrounded by development. <br />
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Now for some pictures of the sites I accepted.<br />
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This is the Cape Otway Light House. As you can see it is a rural area. The actual location is more in the grassy area, the GPS coordinates were off a bit. There is nothing blocking the wind, there are no structures close enough to affect the readings. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-d0xzSjgmcbwbfFLbBjOrsnG_Wzg11r66j_sfGdX_1e0tT-vcSgSs5cxmZUA_5LxCjoFhagmG3SNIVWvCO7rUgrin_euhDKug25YBsEaoby3pZKQh6NzqHLP5h_HEn0lyVN4Psubhb7a_/s1600/o1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="617" data-original-width="841" height="468" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-d0xzSjgmcbwbfFLbBjOrsnG_Wzg11r66j_sfGdX_1e0tT-vcSgSs5cxmZUA_5LxCjoFhagmG3SNIVWvCO7rUgrin_euhDKug25YBsEaoby3pZKQh6NzqHLP5h_HEn0lyVN4Psubhb7a_/s640/o1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The next pictures are from the Richmond Post Office. As you can see the site is in an open field well away from any buildings. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp_S3o7Wvee6qa1ILuUIZUJw1eeQpN7y4FY2PjnVx8RCbkrzUF4czPL8RPcbbgDZFCRfx0aByP7sU33ZD4tpDqBK_obr0_KTlj5nxCIdo6RGiKKrpicVi9HnyVS90v3BAYth9TsxKTe6Ri/s1600/rich1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="837" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp_S3o7Wvee6qa1ILuUIZUJw1eeQpN7y4FY2PjnVx8RCbkrzUF4czPL8RPcbbgDZFCRfx0aByP7sU33ZD4tpDqBK_obr0_KTlj5nxCIdo6RGiKKrpicVi9HnyVS90v3BAYth9TsxKTe6Ri/s640/rich1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdX5ydXKPlTS9nybEOsvSBdY2W_j_wgc0TWODTY-uc6LK8z7HMxxrq9EqdNZwBRmplGi_9oKTf1QWC2v7vb6_7EKdpVGcdR7i0vcbaXOVZRF0N99LBJ6-vsq2XMZZGKrkmGcrD3fWBvb9Y/s1600/rich3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="1336" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdX5ydXKPlTS9nybEOsvSBdY2W_j_wgc0TWODTY-uc6LK8z7HMxxrq9EqdNZwBRmplGi_9oKTf1QWC2v7vb6_7EKdpVGcdR7i0vcbaXOVZRF0N99LBJ6-vsq2XMZZGKrkmGcrD3fWBvb9Y/s640/rich3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The final set of pictures is from Boulia Airport. This station is located well away from any buildings and is certainly not sheltered from the wind. It is close to a runway. I would think any influence would be minimal.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz4M-utJgSr1oq1EIeOWMHerOZ56tzJZEDZTOKkJLFZFR9aj8RunMjJZSZAbScOkEUKSR1Pe9rAd7WVoL3K73VniQs4F6ipyaeX6s_lN1Y23lAOXvhFmB-7pUtaemzvQOAnp17o_Xcy46W/s1600/ba2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1600" data-original-width="1200" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz4M-utJgSr1oq1EIeOWMHerOZ56tzJZEDZTOKkJLFZFR9aj8RunMjJZSZAbScOkEUKSR1Pe9rAd7WVoL3K73VniQs4F6ipyaeX6s_lN1Y23lAOXvhFmB-7pUtaemzvQOAnp17o_Xcy46W/s640/ba2.png" width="480" /></a></div>
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These last three locations are as good as it gets. I see no reason to reject them. They are probably not in precisely the same location and there are probably other factors I am not seeing. However, I am also looking at the data. There are no abrupt changes of any kind. All three locations have extremely similar records. Speaking of which, let's get to that.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje3dv1RNYREtlebyMBmLIK2xmthz3iwQrWiRukBZuIY57ngb8QVbth3s_u3f60-swUqZKFNrylfJswqP5CpHizcq6Z6xZeNxbvtq85E6FSh8oeI27h0w9Rp0kf-FbGu8RGUJTWHCiF1iJD/s1600/Ausavg1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="444" data-original-width="761" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje3dv1RNYREtlebyMBmLIK2xmthz3iwQrWiRukBZuIY57ngb8QVbth3s_u3f60-swUqZKFNrylfJswqP5CpHizcq6Z6xZeNxbvtq85E6FSh8oeI27h0w9Rp0kf-FbGu8RGUJTWHCiF1iJD/s640/Ausavg1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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This is the average of those three stations with a running 5 year average trend line. All three stations follow this trend with an average maximum deviation of ± 0.32°. Most of that variance occurs from 1895 to 1900. From 1900 onward deviations from the average trend are minimal. </div>
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Below is a graph of the maximum and minimum deviations from average for all three stations used in my graph.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiERXYbKZpyNK8J8wI1syWQ6BFrk7qliZK155D40TTJoTvd4HiVIwqWzygDe6rI18bjMYjfDqDimvKOONw-D1Qj-4SYGwRu1_uGo2K8dnoWIHS2P82QIskTMwrzqLBth7jJE5PlGh9XH_zc/s1600/ausavgtake2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="773" height="322" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiERXYbKZpyNK8J8wI1syWQ6BFrk7qliZK155D40TTJoTvd4HiVIwqWzygDe6rI18bjMYjfDqDimvKOONw-D1Qj-4SYGwRu1_uGo2K8dnoWIHS2P82QIskTMwrzqLBth7jJE5PlGh9XH_zc/s640/ausavgtake2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Do not mistake me here. <strong>This is not a reconstructed average of the record of temperature change in Australia. There simply isn't enough data to make a true reconstruction. This is the average record for three sites with minimal human induced localized changes. </strong><strong>Because changes due to local factors have been minimized as much as possible this provides a better baseline as to changes in temperature due to changes affecting the entire region than a simple average of all sites. </strong></div>
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Note I said minimal and not no human induced changes. The fact is I can't see and estimate the effects of all human changes to a particular area. I have just eliminated the obvious changes. Make no mistake, humans do create localized changes in temperature. It is widely recognized developed areas typically have higher average temperatures than surrounding, lesser or undeveloped areas. </div>
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<strong>Every location in Australia will follow this general trend within factors of variability caused by localized affects, most of which are probably human induced</strong>. The strength of this assertion is it is absolutely true for all seven of the site records not included in the average. All of them follow this general trend to some degree or for some period of time. </div>
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Until the next time......</div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-11390195326326344932018-03-30T17:34:00.002-07:002018-03-30T17:34:55.845-07:00GHCN Part 6: Robe, A Tale of Bad DataIn my last post I discussed the station at Low Head and issues with the quality of the data. I also made some conjectures as to why the data is questionable. In this post I will discuss the site located in Robe, Australia. This time I won't be guessing as to what is wrong with the data.<br />
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Robe is yet another site which appears to invalidate the relationship between population growth or population density and temperature rise.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_2LKHfqtS4EPHwiArpH_VSo3vf4dqbJ0lOubnpltcHHSWjMciZd38yXHvErUBfwTFoboOYfAbAjlXMJV6b1opvFot6M_RyjUom70aehNZTn5bJ-H0vjahs37DQuRmWvsQXlb02d6J3hU6/s1600/r1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="323" data-original-width="595" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_2LKHfqtS4EPHwiArpH_VSo3vf4dqbJ0lOubnpltcHHSWjMciZd38yXHvErUBfwTFoboOYfAbAjlXMJV6b1opvFot6M_RyjUom70aehNZTn5bJ-H0vjahs37DQuRmWvsQXlb02d6J3hU6/s400/r1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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As before, I have transposed the data into standard deviations. It is pretty obvious the site measurements show some significant changes in measured temperature over time. A number of such shifts are evident. However, the major shift appears to happen between 1958 and 1971. As before, I will isolate those time periods.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAwRJY6SfUW5YdntYAZlW4H34Gr9wUPCjWa61sXVnsXGQk8GN6TFPqi1HBWpVxUsMqSvcXDqI2Pt4_hCDxjAEPigP9n6LS6k32QJhnidMFXMlb13D8zpgKVDSuZcw7XkOtguZhRysAuDGc/s1600/r3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="602" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAwRJY6SfUW5YdntYAZlW4H34Gr9wUPCjWa61sXVnsXGQk8GN6TFPqi1HBWpVxUsMqSvcXDqI2Pt4_hCDxjAEPigP9n6LS6k32QJhnidMFXMlb13D8zpgKVDSuZcw7XkOtguZhRysAuDGc/s400/r3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSdb-kX9b2vYXltyJFx_uZWzr4jBVY5MSREkA6qJB7_Y9KLnf_mmwd766ObDAns1IWZkn257_ps-Bb8uwD2wtNQTYCdRRQYwAKLUZXL1g7mGtEX7LAGBSNCjQPF1s92BuWVW7zwbXHh_2p/s1600/r2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="594" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSdb-kX9b2vYXltyJFx_uZWzr4jBVY5MSREkA6qJB7_Y9KLnf_mmwd766ObDAns1IWZkn257_ps-Bb8uwD2wtNQTYCdRRQYwAKLUZXL1g7mGtEX7LAGBSNCjQPF1s92BuWVW7zwbXHh_2p/s400/r2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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I am not going to bother with a detailed statistical look at the data for reasons which will soon be obvious. The important information from this is in the pre 1958 time frame the temperature remained close to the average within minor oscillations. Post 1971 there is no appreciable change of any significance. In other words, no increase or decrease.</div>
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So, what happened? Let's look at the actual site itself.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvlLgKT1eNd0VFhv7PafVf2UW9Cl4h2Lbhf2ha8YA5dmCpbhGcAiBlMwb6zmtj0MxkxtYlHMy8J0SBVPH3ahUxuiUe8su1Ej7T8VIn53D1r7fenyVUsApGm_9S-caj0xfDastt80hAYLDO/s1600/a18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="1295" height="278" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvlLgKT1eNd0VFhv7PafVf2UW9Cl4h2Lbhf2ha8YA5dmCpbhGcAiBlMwb6zmtj0MxkxtYlHMy8J0SBVPH3ahUxuiUe8su1Ej7T8VIn53D1r7fenyVUsApGm_9S-caj0xfDastt80hAYLDO/s640/a18.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsRRQqCFMHxq_R1ObriTKKo-OxL5zactVH0-mHFKJdJomJnwQUNhtYL2gNiSLVDenUQ3ag4s3fp688htAkHcq5o-pR-DGtf4PZoXpbHrqGhJ086hsCQIzS7vQjBKpkCTbO20m-q77NIRHn/s1600/a19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="481" data-original-width="753" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsRRQqCFMHxq_R1ObriTKKo-OxL5zactVH0-mHFKJdJomJnwQUNhtYL2gNiSLVDenUQ3ag4s3fp688htAkHcq5o-pR-DGtf4PZoXpbHrqGhJ086hsCQIzS7vQjBKpkCTbO20m-q77NIRHn/s640/a19.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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See the Stevenson screen holding the thermometers and other equipment? it is that white box visible behind the upper left corner of the gate.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3p3SpBEHGmqFUuD7BlsOcwpIA0Vclmm89k5W2F4A6nWpkIv_9goI9xcSdBeLSyzl5w7nRcVSvd4-AkMsetKM9rUkG_5WoWFi9opt-2Ilm5nojcMD0Csr1ic4YJOUys3r3O-PsjdOFAUNZ/s1600/a20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="839" height="478" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3p3SpBEHGmqFUuD7BlsOcwpIA0Vclmm89k5W2F4A6nWpkIv_9goI9xcSdBeLSyzl5w7nRcVSvd4-AkMsetKM9rUkG_5WoWFi9opt-2Ilm5nojcMD0Csr1ic4YJOUys3r3O-PsjdOFAUNZ/s640/a20.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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And here is the view from the heavens courtesy of Google Earth. The little pointer misses it just a bit, but that ain't bad.</div>
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So, let's go over what we are seeing here. First of all, the location changes since 1895 are probably pretty profound. I doubt they had Chinese restaurants and drive through banking back then. Or cars for that matter. There probably weren't any commercial AC units blowing hot air around back then either. I am betting development probably started after the war, but probably began really taking off in the late 50's. It probably reached a saturation point by the early 70's.</div>
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So, what do we have here? Simply put, a serious case of site contamination. While the population density is low, the development density is not. The factors of change are roads, parking lots, buildings, cars, AC units, and all the other things development brings. Remember my example from my last post of the black asphalt square? Same thing but with lots of hot exhaust added.</div>
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The bottom line on this is this station has been compromised to an extent where the data is just not usable. This situation exists on three certainly and probably four out of the four sites in Australia I have looked at in detail.</div>
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Which means, in all likelihood, I am down to just six sites. </div>
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What do you guess a good, detailed look at sites in the US is going to show? </div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-85217089287084213322018-03-30T14:49:00.000-07:002018-03-30T14:49:09.767-07:00GHCN data Part 5: Australia and Data ProblemsIn my last blog post I discussed creating accurate models of the existing data. I ended up having five separate models which describe what I would have to term different scenarios. Meaning the history of temperature changes varied greatly from location to location. Temperatures fell in some places and rose in others. In a typical location the over all change ended up being close to no change, even though there were lots of changes in between. <br />
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Obviously temperatures, or more accurately temperature measurements, changed over time for certain reasons. Those reasons presumably would fall into categories. Those categories could be broadly defined as local, regional, or global changes. <br />
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A global change, by definition, would be a change which affects every location in the world. However, it doesn't mean that change would be discernible in all locations. Global changes could be offset or augmented by local or regional changes. This is where the task becomes extremely difficult. It is impossible to know much less quantify all the local or regional changes which might distort a global change. <br />
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Because of this difficulty I decided to make a test case out of Australia. The advantages to this are the limited number of stations involved, the relative isolation of the region, and its location. Unlike the US, which is bordered by the Pacific, the Atlantic, and the Gulf. So the task of filtering the wheat from the chaff, as it were, should be easier. Should being the important word here.<br />
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My first pass at this task was looking at population growth as a proxy for changes in land usage. The urban heat island effect, where developed cities are often several degrees warmer than the surrounding areas, is well known. So this is a logical place to start. There does appear to be a correlation between population growth and temperature.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgtGbaIFZMWJKrUNxSb3e8vW8w2t-GAxaeG1hFBKnx4s5EsqLBA0EwRy0FcZl4IhNbiwEHC7OrPJwI0QO-yoh9teFODVk1ClPQ6AMCLSmA4THE8x0DudII1y82xIWbHWUvFi0hhNt9rWrt/s1600/n8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="802" data-original-width="734" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgtGbaIFZMWJKrUNxSb3e8vW8w2t-GAxaeG1hFBKnx4s5EsqLBA0EwRy0FcZl4IhNbiwEHC7OrPJwI0QO-yoh9teFODVk1ClPQ6AMCLSmA4THE8x0DudII1y82xIWbHWUvFi0hhNt9rWrt/s320/n8.jpg" width="292" /></a></div>
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In general more people does equal higher temperatures. However, there are two stations where this pattern is broken rather severely. Those locations are Low Head, which is located on the north of Tasmania, and Otway Lighthouse. Both locations are somewhat similar, the Lead Head station is located at the Low Head Lighthouse. For now I am going to concentrate on Low Head.<br />
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Low Head breaks the population / temperature pattern because it has the highest overall temperature increase but without a corresponding population increase. It is listed in the 2016 census as home to 6,765 people with a population density of 331 per square kilometer. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaQcGbCFofI-y2nJOwUBwxcWp5zSFPpFJZPBWWhGnTbd24KyOLM-3PafK3BD7cfn0oZpBKUQ2LqXiWugVNAhV5jdQ1fieeD36k_-27BuIuBgx5cdBLPWAswrivnQdIAx2y3ybQaM-coAoh/s1600/a2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="704" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaQcGbCFofI-y2nJOwUBwxcWp5zSFPpFJZPBWWhGnTbd24KyOLM-3PafK3BD7cfn0oZpBKUQ2LqXiWugVNAhV5jdQ1fieeD36k_-27BuIuBgx5cdBLPWAswrivnQdIAx2y3ybQaM-coAoh/s320/a2.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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This is the Low Head Temperature record.</div>
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Please note the last 10 temperature readings are estimated based upon the average of the previous 10 years. This is one of two instances where I imputed data. Now I will strip that data off and proceed to do some statistical analysis. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETzJBG9OjifA9HkhTaZkyvWYkxpCWSHp09QIHX6b084NTsO1HQIQp550YSQHbpwVuiA2bmV5k24veZtie3XhLSdvbMpfiWfboGYPKPDlDqFhCpfTCASfzQYv8qnsKCCXWlsXIGIoDN_qn/s1600/a11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="645" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjETzJBG9OjifA9HkhTaZkyvWYkxpCWSHp09QIHX6b084NTsO1HQIQp550YSQHbpwVuiA2bmV5k24veZtie3XhLSdvbMpfiWfboGYPKPDlDqFhCpfTCASfzQYv8qnsKCCXWlsXIGIoDN_qn/s320/a11.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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This is the same data converted to a standard normal distribution.</div>
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This is a graphical analysis which is generally used to look at data and see if there is evidence to suggest a shift in the average has occurred. This will become more clear in a moment, but it is obvious the average has changed over time. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXW_Q4OTkyoBvCUlLRz84oGOAA0zpaLMDTXUvo9KkAes34uHDUHav-WtvHi9kx5cbgPJBMYR5TUNtVtQqR8cJvngHXppiM-DwLq9GGHE0TyyUdNGBs_SB9IyVznQN5w4DuzqunoLEX9dmy/s1600/a11a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="645" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXW_Q4OTkyoBvCUlLRz84oGOAA0zpaLMDTXUvo9KkAes34uHDUHav-WtvHi9kx5cbgPJBMYR5TUNtVtQqR8cJvngHXppiM-DwLq9GGHE0TyyUdNGBs_SB9IyVznQN5w4DuzqunoLEX9dmy/s320/a11a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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This is where the advantages of this technique really come into play. This test shows on obvious change or changes in the site average. There is, however, more. It appears there are three distinctly different average occurring at different times. Meaning, what looks like a gradual rise in temperature from 1959 to 1974 is actually two discrete changes of .69° in 1959 and .82° in 1974. The inference is the site experienced a local change which affected the temperature measurements. <br />
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To state the hypothesis formally: The data shows three distinct periods of time which three distinctly different averages. These mean shifts occurred with no apparent transition period. There is no variation in the average between these shifts.<br />
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I will test this hypothesis, using the same technique, by splitting the graph into three parts and see if I can prove the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the average did shift inside these three time frames. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMlQqmKkdQJaHL4fKtjYPdn8k6MM1kJ-Mz2xNkWvS6eTkY2Z34da1xzGjTfAxwUnGN_eMgBC-a5MDWNKSQfW1ZVyvCnvKYeF68f8xkwW1C0XPfRxKlQPQ0g504eUOBDh9LE6ejAFerGdDS/s1600/A15.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="352" data-original-width="626" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMlQqmKkdQJaHL4fKtjYPdn8k6MM1kJ-Mz2xNkWvS6eTkY2Z34da1xzGjTfAxwUnGN_eMgBC-a5MDWNKSQfW1ZVyvCnvKYeF68f8xkwW1C0XPfRxKlQPQ0g504eUOBDh9LE6ejAFerGdDS/s400/A15.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This test is somewhat inconclusive. There is evidence to suggest means shifts did occur, but, with the exception of the first point, nothing falls outside of a 95% confidence interval for the mean. The null hypothesis has not been proven.</div>
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This test is also inconclusive. There is insufficient evidence to support the null hypothesis.</div>
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This test is also inconclusive. There is no evidence to support the null hypothesis.</div>
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So, what does this mean? That is an excellent question. Failing to prove the null hypothesis, my hypothesis stands. Not proven, just not unproven. Meaning there is a reasonable probability I am correct and it is exactly as it looks. The inference is something changed in 1958 - 1959 and in 1973 - 1974 which permanently altered the temperature measurements. Beyond those singular changes, there is no other evidence of any change or trend.<br />
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At this point I want to go back to my designation of changes being local, regional, or global. Based upon the other nine graphs for Australian stations, these changes are not reflected in eight the other stations. The 1959 shift does appear to be reflected in the Otway Lighthouse record, but the 1974 shift is not reflected. In fact, there appears to be no change at the Otway Lighthouse from 1959 onward. I will expound upon that in a future blog post.<br />
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Therefore, the assumption is these shifts reflect localized changes which impacted measurements on site. But what things could effect those kinds of changes?<br />
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Low Head Lighthouse</div>
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The first obvious thing to look at is the means of measuring temperature and how that is done. As mention in the first post of this series thermometers evolved from mercury and alcohol filled glass thermometers to digital thermometers which use a version of a thermocouple to measure temperature. That change really didn't get going until the nineties. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyLF8hgq8biIYk2-1HqadW3sgFndPxUSEe7aDazgZpjkKy-TOmidZ3Y-PbvoYK5snUodPBlhbTJbQRxvg6lCZfOWGLGuar1UQjgIdOZdMbq7BRksjcikpN3mV9ZfySOA-jBtVdqhlhGjwx/s1600/stevenson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyLF8hgq8biIYk2-1HqadW3sgFndPxUSEe7aDazgZpjkKy-TOmidZ3Y-PbvoYK5snUodPBlhbTJbQRxvg6lCZfOWGLGuar1UQjgIdOZdMbq7BRksjcikpN3mV9ZfySOA-jBtVdqhlhGjwx/s1600/stevenson.jpg" /></a></div>
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A Stevenson Screen</div>
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Weather monitoring stations use what is basically a white louvered box know as a Stevenson screen to hold measuring equipment. This is painted white to reflect sunlight and limit actual heating of the box. It is enclose on the sides by double walls. It holds the instruments at a standardized height from the ground. This design has essentially remained unchanged since the late 1800's. <br />
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There has been some speculation changes in paint formulas in the 1970's to eliminate lead may have resulted in changes to readings inside Stevenson screens. I have no data on that, so I will file it away for future consideration.<br />
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According to records on line the Low Head Lighthouse has undergone numerous changes over the years. Buildings have been added, electricity sources changed, equipment moved in and moved out. Probably the most important thing would be relocation, replacement, or repairs to the Stevenson screen. This is a location exposed to the ocean, so it is hard to imagine the same screen being in operation for over 100 years. I have no doubt it has been painted, repaired, moved, and even replaced at some point. The location where it currently resides is on a rocky, grassless, portion of the site. There are several bushes and large rocks very close to the screen. Other locations nearby are grass covered, bare sand, or rock. The surface color varies quite a bit. All of these could have a measureable affect on a spot just three meters off the ground.<br />
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One of the facts most people don't know is temperature isn't uniform even in a single location. More to the point, temperature as measured can vary quite a bit even within a few yards, even in your own yard. For example, you could have a small area in your yard covered in black asphalt surrounded by a grassy area. The asphalt can be quite hot while the grass is cool. A thermometer held above the asphalt on a calm day will read higher than it would when held in a nearby location over grass. Have you ever noticed when walking towards a beach how the sand can go from just warm to too hot to walk on to actually being cool? Ever wonder why wet sand tends to be cooler and dry sand tends to be hotter? If you guessed water you are correct. When it comes to sand and dirt wet is cooler and dry is warmer. The point here is location and maintaining a location is important.<br />
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However, these things are just speculation. Ultimately the point of this is something changed suddenly. There is no gradual, incremental change apparent.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqBG3dMzeiZY_lIaF69UAxxLjBZ_WSlqfI1U3_9DU15Jf95hzrJ_Wbb-_1RXhwddLELcPMn54ljXYQ0ytVrXoDGOSiH_Y5xX6dbP_4obFLXMsbhsOc20FiMkbC24I36bsuazahowsKbcOI/s1600/a12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="645" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqBG3dMzeiZY_lIaF69UAxxLjBZ_WSlqfI1U3_9DU15Jf95hzrJ_Wbb-_1RXhwddLELcPMn54ljXYQ0ytVrXoDGOSiH_Y5xX6dbP_4obFLXMsbhsOc20FiMkbC24I36bsuazahowsKbcOI/s400/a12.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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This final chart for Low Head was created by making adjustments to the data to eliminate those changes which occurred about 1959 and 1974. I am really showing this more for speculative purposes with respect to the concept of making adjustments to past data. How advisable is this? Is it really kosher to do this? Even though backed by data, I am still making assumptions. I am assuming what ever site changes may have happened did not augment or mitigate other changes which may have occurred. Whatever changes did occur, if they occurred, it is too late to quantify now except as an educated guess. Knowing exactly how to quantify such a change would require measuring in parallel for a period of time so any measurement change would be precisely defined. A more rigorous approach in situ would be to quantify that change and then take actions to eliminate it. <br />
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The ramifications of this are pretty high within the context of my study. Therefore, I am somewhat undecided. This is the central question to this whole endeavor. The options I have are to discard the record entirely, modify it and include it, or leave it in and hope it is offset somewhere else by negative impacts.<br />
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I have no answer at this point.<br />
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More to follow....<br />
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-62778484202551047422018-03-29T13:08:00.002-07:002018-03-29T13:15:35.473-07:00GHCN Part 4: The Models, Current StateIn my previous post I talked about five distinct models of temperature data. Three for the US, Canada, and Europe and two for Australia. Based upon the defining parameter of what I am calling the temperature delta, which is the absolute change in temperature from the beginning to the end of my time period, these models are accurate to within ± 1° for 75% and ± 1.5° for the remainder in describing individual station data for the appropriate region.<br />
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Below are the five models.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7RoQRxO4215RgGt9OVR1OCOvEzQYkVLQMAcmImkwRHG5SXaGFAn4I16dp55abo3oKOzUUFp8eTwrF62etYN0zFk55mJRpSV05FBQHgzK9AcBHXnRDzd1Xuf9ImlOseE_xCPA4jjf8Tw_6/s1600/n5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="481" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7RoQRxO4215RgGt9OVR1OCOvEzQYkVLQMAcmImkwRHG5SXaGFAn4I16dp55abo3oKOzUUFp8eTwrF62etYN0zFk55mJRpSV05FBQHgzK9AcBHXnRDzd1Xuf9ImlOseE_xCPA4jjf8Tw_6/s400/n5.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4xG3rUsm33Bmz9H-23jr-fS49lF0z08o9aMOnbQFHx6e8T6hdFFY9c56kYLPb8N-lnyR3NcO7X6aoO7dyK_34kyndEKzPjpzGJWpZ06-SCa10CdV_DttsZ_SSoqwNUm3L0oQT_1-H98bN/s1600/n2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="551" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4xG3rUsm33Bmz9H-23jr-fS49lF0z08o9aMOnbQFHx6e8T6hdFFY9c56kYLPb8N-lnyR3NcO7X6aoO7dyK_34kyndEKzPjpzGJWpZ06-SCa10CdV_DttsZ_SSoqwNUm3L0oQT_1-H98bN/s400/n2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8NdoFopbGd2QRDDgv0WDcoFlmKwxiWcB1m4Em2uTtcEkW-34_71nqhHrzpAzAUrVLE-QzwYxD9OIWyvtpN0NdaiZssxqbo8KMaciQ-PIOrRwk_RrXK3XO62ep4D0jpgp_a03j2hYVLTrZ/s1600/n4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="287" data-original-width="480" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8NdoFopbGd2QRDDgv0WDcoFlmKwxiWcB1m4Em2uTtcEkW-34_71nqhHrzpAzAUrVLE-QzwYxD9OIWyvtpN0NdaiZssxqbo8KMaciQ-PIOrRwk_RrXK3XO62ep4D0jpgp_a03j2hYVLTrZ/s400/n4.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPrgUDk54QANrU6QgVCrBza5WdAkekAZKDa2YqeuB4FpqUaceR90GapbC2tKkZ2dV5uQFArW0AsxV0gnPNEAOHPSNTkIn2Jwp_NhsXsxgawCiKul_8BbnXp-s854ddIKhDbCuThqXxBirB/s1600/n3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="345" data-original-width="631" height="217" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPrgUDk54QANrU6QgVCrBza5WdAkekAZKDa2YqeuB4FpqUaceR90GapbC2tKkZ2dV5uQFArW0AsxV0gnPNEAOHPSNTkIn2Jwp_NhsXsxgawCiKul_8BbnXp-s854ddIKhDbCuThqXxBirB/s400/n3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Suffice to say, at this point, there are obviously great differences in what happened between locations over the past 100 or so years. There are obviously significant local and regional factors as yet undefined. This, in itself, is a significant finding in the context of the Global Warming or Climate Change debate. <br />
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There are also indications of what may be global factors. If you look carefully at the first four graphs, paying attention to the red five year average trend lines, there is a distinctive V shaped pattern centered on the year 1996. This appears to be a strong signal as it has manifested itself through four distinctly different trends. That would indicate the existence of a wide ranging event of some significance such as a major volcanic eruption. <br />
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I am anticipating moving forward from here is going to become progressively more time consuming. My first inclination is to begin by looking at changes in population based upon the Australian models. However, there are many ways in which the face of the land may change over time. Man and nature both never stand still. <br />
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Until next time, folks.<br />
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<br />
<br />Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-9699047958794088742018-03-29T12:30:00.001-07:002018-03-29T12:30:46.374-07:00GHCN Part 3: Creating a Temperature Model
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">This is part three of a series on Global Warming using
records from the Global Historical Climatology Network. In my first post of
this series I discussed my data source, my means of selecting which records to
use, and the time frame of study. I used only station records which were
complete for the time frame of study. I had determined not to impute or
estimate any data.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The previous post of this series described the results from
that data in terms of number of days above <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>85°F,
90°F, 95°F, and 100°F as well as the number of days where the daily highs did
not exceed 32°F, 20°F, and 10°F. As we saw, for the locations involved, the
number of warmer days has consistently fluctuated up and down at apparently
regular intervals, but have generally decreased since the 1930’s. The number of
colder days has consistently fluctuated up and down in a repeated pattern. For
the number of days at or below freezing the data indicate the years of 1900 to
1930 and 1980 to 2003 are nearly identical. There is evidence to suggest that
pattern began to repeat again in 2005 to 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As I explained in the first post of the series there are
certain limitations to this study which bear repeating here. The long term data
from the GHCN daily max min tables is very limited. Most of the coverage is in
the lower 48 states of the US. Canada, Europe, Central Asia, and Australia are all
represented but to significantly lesser degrees. Africa, Central America, and
South America are not covered. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">With those limitations in mind, let me describe in general
terms the process I used to develop the data into useful information.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Goal defined<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">When performing an analysis
for this type of data the goal is to develop a model which accurately describes
the data and then determine a means of applying that model to other, similar
situations which fit the definitions of the model.</b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">This is a process which involves creating a model, testing the model
against known data, evaluating the results, and adjusting the model
accordingly. An accurate model will be able to perform accurate predictions for
known data within acceptable levels of data variation. A model which cannot
make accurate predictions against known data is flawed and therefore would not
be useful.</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Creating the Model<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">My first pass approximation for such a model was the
simplest model available, which is a raw average of all the data. I chose to
test this model by comparison to selected samples of individual station data. Without
going into details, let me just say this initial model failed. For example, the
model failed to describe the general time series trend of individual stations. Meaning
where things started off and where they ended up. That failure informed my
method for refining the model.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I refined my data model to address that failure by creating
a new data set consisting of beginning and ending temperatures for each
station. I analyzed that data by calculating a temperature change delta for
each station and performing statistical analysis on that data set.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I found quantifying stations by the overall start to finish
temperature change, the temperature delta, produced a near normal data set. Using
this as a starting point I refined my model in to three separate models. One model
covers the -1° to 1° range which contains 75% of all stations. The second model
covers the 1° to 4° range which contains 17% of the stations. The last model
covers the -1° to -2.5° range which contains the last 8% of the stations.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">As before, I tested the data models against actual station
data with model selection based upon the temperature delta parameter. Again,
the models failed to accurately reflect all the data. Quantifying that failure
was easy as all failures occurred in Australia. Separating Australia as a
separate data set and performing the same analysis as above, I created two
additional models. The number of models is now three for the northern
hemisphere and two for Australia. A total of 5 models. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">These five models, based
upon two selection parameters, are accurate within ± 1° for over 75% of the
individual stations and within ±1.5° for the remainder. This is an acceptable degree
of error in my opinion.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Refining and Utilizing the Model<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">One of the primary reasons for creating a model, beyond
defining what has gone before, is to act as a predictive tool. Having defined
models which describe what is known to have happened it now becomes necessary
to try and define and quantify those factors which affected what happened.
Therefore, it is helpful to have five different models and a wide range of
results. These five models can be further reduced into three essential models
based upon the over all results: Temperatures rose, temperatures fell, or
temperatures did not change appreciably. Those are distinctly different
outcomes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Each station in this data set has been affected by certain
factors. I will define those factors as local, regional, or global. Local factors
contribute to unique site results. Regional factors contribute to site results
over a certain area. The scope of regional factors may vary quite a bit. Global
factors would contribute to outcomes all over the world. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The process going forward is defining and quantifying local
factors, regional factors, and then global factors. In the process of doing so
the various models become refined to include those parameters. Ideally, they
will be combined into one or two models. The process of model redefinition
would as always include testing the models for descriptive and predictive
accuracy.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Example of Australia<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Australia is an interesting case study for this method.
There are only 10 stations with usable data. However, this data extends back to
1895. Australia not only has a distinctive regional difference, there are
distinctive local differences. Australia is also a mostly sparsely populated
place. One factor which became apparent immediately was population density. Given
the time frame involved, it is reasonable to assume the initial population
density is essentially zero. Predicting which model applies to a site by
current population density proved 100% accurate. There are sites which are
geographically close but far apart by population totals. The magnitude of
temperature increase over the period 1950 to 2005 between these proximate sites
was as much as 3.5° higher for the more heavily populated site. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">When you consider the generally accepted figure for
temperature rise over the past century due to CO2 is 1.5°, a 3.5° temperature
increase differential over 55 years due to a population increase differential
would be significant. Accepting those numbers as reasonably accurate and
assuming 1.5° as the result of Global factors, and assuming linearity, the inference is
the localized factor of population growth has a greater influence on local
temperatures than global factors by several orders of magnitude.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Moving Forward<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Understand, this process is far from complete. I am
presenting this information on what I am working on essentially in real time as
the process progresses. I am letting the data lead me and not the other way
around. I may end up somewhere totally unexpected. Even so, I think it is
worthwhile to make these posts. I would certainly welcome constructive input.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Next post: The five models.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-75184699024154472232018-03-24T11:42:00.000-07:002018-03-24T11:42:40.692-07:00Climate Change According to the Global Historic Climate Network: Part 2 - the ResultsIn my previous post I presented some background information on the GHCN and the data available from it. I won't go over that information in detail again here. What is important to know is I am looking at the GHCN data covering the years 1900 through 2011 using only stations with complete records for all those years. That is 493 stations. For this post I am using the highest recorded daily temperatures.<br />
<br />
So without further ado and editorial comments, here are the fairly self explanatory charts. Note: I have added trend lines consisting of 5 year running averages to each chart shown in red.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1QaM9-43RsvA2VljrmgIyaKWc0cjjPFLgh6Z-k93rzbjruFbROYUmC-eRvXtx9UihvNQhei31cpQnWSymwmBL4Wyit9SlEz0DJ6RmnnVDLmgMhG8-S67S3DtU0XDSRYZCdu5E-TXBWQzF/s1600/8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="752" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1QaM9-43RsvA2VljrmgIyaKWc0cjjPFLgh6Z-k93rzbjruFbROYUmC-eRvXtx9UihvNQhei31cpQnWSymwmBL4Wyit9SlEz0DJ6RmnnVDLmgMhG8-S67S3DtU0XDSRYZCdu5E-TXBWQzF/s640/8.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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What you see here is nothing more than what we really should know from our history. The hottest weather seen since 1900 occurred in the 1930's. This corresponds with a significant drop in the number of days where the daily high failed to get above freezing. This also corresponds to a period of severe weather related incidents all over the world. In fact, 1936 was the worst year for heat, floods, and storms in the modern record.</div>
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Don't just take my word for that. Steve Goddard (aka Tony Heller) has done an excellent job of documenting the extremes of the past on his blog. There you will see newspaper articles, magazine articles, government reports, and supporting data showing extreme events all over the world. A good starting point would be to simply search for 1936 on his blog. You will get plenty of reading material from that year alone. </div>
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<a href="https://realclimatescience.com/" target="_blank">https://realclimatescience.com/</a></div>
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If you look carefully you will notice a couple of other things. For temperatures over 90° F there are actually five individual spikes of varying magnitudes. These appear to occur at fairly regular intervals. The latest of these appears to have started in the late 1990's. You will also notice the number of days where the temperature did not exceed freezing began to go down about 1980 and reached its lowest point in the early 2000's. </div>
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As I explained in my previous post, the data I am presenting is heavily weighted towards North America and Europe. It does include data from all over the world, but that data is sparse in comparison. There is however nothing I can do about that. Lacking similar data from Africa means I am unable to create an extensive long term temperature record from Africa. Lacking similar data from South America means I am unable to do so for South America either. The records exist where they exist, they just do not exist elsewhere.</div>
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However, the data does cover significant portions of the inhabitable land mass of the world. If global warming were truly happening as rapidly and as incontrovertibly over all the world as claimed would it not be apparent in North America, Europe, and significant portions of Asia? Of course it would.</div>
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The simple fact is the UN, NASA, the NOAA, and others are trying to reconstruct a history of the global average temperature from woefully incomplete data. Yet, those reconstructions in no way match the actual temperature records from anywhere in the world with long term temperature records. Why then should we believe them, much less commit billions upon billions of dollars and place the very bases of our economies into their hands? Can we really justify condemning billions of people to poverty, disease, and no hope to ever better their lives based upon flimsy reconstructions?</div>
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Coming soon: Climate Change According to the Global Historic Climate Network: Part 3.</div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-12041611229409726562018-03-24T10:44:00.003-07:002018-03-24T10:44:47.758-07:00Climate Change According to the Global Historic Climate Network: Part 1Before I get going on part 1 of today's post I would like to cover a bit of background information. The information I am working with comes from the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN) which I pulled from a link on the Berkeley Earth website. The GHCN files in this data set run from the 1700's up to 2011. However, I am focusing on the years 1900 to 2011. This data set consists primarily of two files. One file contains daily maximum temperatures while the other contains daily minimum temperatures. <br />
<br />
The vast majority of these daily measurements were made with a device which has been around for over 200 years known as a Six's Thermometer. These are actually very accurate and in many cases very precise devices. Six's Thermometers little different from those used back in the late 1800's are still in use today for precise and accurate temperature measurements. A Six's Thermometer will faithfully record the maximum and minimum temperatures encounter between settings. Typically, station person would record the max and min temperatures from the previous 24 hours and reset the thermometer every day at the same time. <br />
<br />
The era of precision thermometry began in the early 1700's. Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit was the German physicist who invented<span style="color: #6a6a6a;"> </span>the alcohol thermometer in 1709, and the mercury thermometer in 1714. He also established the Fahrenheit scale which of course is still in use.<br />
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The point of this background information is don't make the mistake of assuming old data equates to inaccurate data. The basis of the science has not changed. Much of the equipment we use today has not changed substantially. The methods for establishing base point temperatures such as the freezing point of water have not changed appreciably. Every system for measuring temperature owes its accuracy to the same basic principles. In that regard nothing has really changed.<br />
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Below is a close up of a Six's Thermometer.</div>
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Below is a Six's Thermometer circa 1897 from the Museo Galileo.</div>
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Now it is time to begin to dive into the GHCN data. The data set is massive. During the period of 1900 through 2011 alone the data set contains measurements from 27, 721 stations. I condensed the individual daily maximum measurements into 927, 961 individual annual averages. Really gives you an appreciation for modern computers doesn't it?<br />
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As massive as the shear size of the data set, the next question is what to do with it. Is it all good, usable data? The answer, unfortunately is no. Most of the data is not usable for my look at the 1900 to 2011 time frame because comparatively few stations were in operation for the entire time span. It clearly makes no sense to compare the temperatures of Atlanta Georgia in the 1930's to the average temperatures of Atlanta and Anchorage Alaska in the 2000's. <br />
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I can attempt to use all the data and I have done so in a number of different ways. I could emulate NASA and the NOAA and try to fill in the blanks using statistical models. There is a major problem with that. As I show below, 70% of the data would have to be estimated. In other words, as massive as the data set is it only contains 30% of the data necessary to look at all temperature trends associate with the locations of all 27,721 stations. Yet, that is exactly what Berkeley Earth, NASA, and the NOAA are doing. Much of what they present is based upon reconstructed data.<br />
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For my study I am using the 493 stations with complete records for every year in my study. This is actually a very high number when compared to other data sets. As far as I have seen this is by far the most complete individual data set out there. It is also an entirely sufficient amount of data for trend analysis. The difference between what I am doing and what NASA, NOAA, and Berkeley are doing is I am making no attempt to construct a global average temperature out of incomplete data. I am looking trends based upon continuous records for a very large number of locations and assuming those trends will be indicative of trends in most similar places. </div>
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What I am not doing is assuming those trends will match what has happened in every location on the planet. I do not expect what has occurred in San Francisco, Beijing, Anchorage, and the middle of the south pole would all be the same. I am quite sure they would not be the same as conditions on the ground, development, and a host of other factors would not be the same. </div>
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It is also important to understand what inhabited areas of the planet are represented by this data and to what degree. Most of the data comes from North America and Europe. Africa, and South America are mostly unrepresented. Data from Asia, the Pacific, and Australia is sparse. That is really unavoidable because we just do not have enough long term data from those areas. We have no idea what temperatures were on average in modern day Sudan back in the 1930's. </div>
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Is it not obvious it is impossible to determine trends in areas for which there is no data? No data is just no data. Any method of filling in the blanks would just be a fancy way of making a guess.</div>
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I am not guessing. At least I am being up front about this. I am telling you these various governmental agencies are not being up front. Besides, if climate change - i.e. global warming caused by CO2 emissions - is truly a global problem it should show up in any subset of the data I care to use. So long as I am faithfully and truthfully showing you what the data really says. That is something I promise you I am doing.</div>
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Next post: The Results.</div>
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Stay tuned. </div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-85804885550774582018-02-03T12:27:00.001-08:002018-02-03T12:27:47.663-08:00Is the Mueller Probe the Real Cover Up?In today's blog post I am going to be a conspiracy theorist. I am not talking vague references to the Illuminati or the Elders of Zion type stuff. I am talking nothing more than looking at current events and past tidbits, lumping in a healthy does of cynicism, and conjecturing a way to connect the dots that assumes something approaching the worst. Honestly, when you consider the incomprehensible amount of money and power floating around assuming the worst might be a healthy habit. I don't trust "them" and I don't care what letter they have after their names. <br />
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So, to lay the ground work for this theory, which is really all it is, let me make a brief list of things which have happened or probably happened which really make no sense. I am talking about actions which were or would be potentially very damaging to those who took those actions. <br />
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Comey, by his own admission, leaked government information which would obviously be considered classified or at least confidential to the media for the stated purpose of initiating the Mueller probe. Why would the top law enforcement officer in the land engage in such behavior? He would have you believe his reasons were altruistic.<br />
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According to the Nunes memo, the FBI presented unverified material to the FISA court, purposely hiding any information as to its origin. The memo says this was their primary evidence. Some dispute that. However, no other evidence sufficient to show probable cause has been made known. No one is disputing this happened. Regardless of any other evidence which might have been produced, this is still misleading the court which could lead to contempt or perjury charges if not worse. Why would people who are part of the premier law enforcement agency in the world committed to a man to the principles of truth, justice, and the American way do this?<br />
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There are more instances but this is sufficient to make the point. Now I will lay out a time line of events to substantiate the inference, the theory, which I will present shortly there after.<br />
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June 2016: The first warrant to allow surveillance of members of the Trump campaign was submitted to the FISA court and rejected.<br />
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September 2016: Hillary Clinton collapses on a mild day at the 9/11 memorial. The Clinton team proceeds to obfuscate the reasons behind this collapse for several weeks until finally stating Hillary had had pneumonia. <br />
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September - October 2016: According to subsequent interviews and her tell all book, Donna Brazile, former interim head of the DNC, considers replacing Hillary Clinton with Joe Biden.<br />
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October 2016: The second FISA warrant request, purportedly using the Steele dossier, is approved.<br />
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October - November 2016: The Steele dossier or portions thereof are made available to the media just prior to the election. Apparently few chose to use it. The only known article is one from Yahoo news, which reportedly was used as evidence to the FISA court. <br />
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November 2016: Hillary Clinton loses the election.<br />
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November - December 2016: The Hillary campaign team purportedly brain storms for some period of time to come up with the strategy of blaming Russian collusion and interference for her loss.<br />
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May 2016: Mueller is named head of the probe into Russian collusion and interference after months of wrangling and hearings.<br />
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One thing is obvious. Hillary's 9/11 collapse resulted in panic among the DNC and Hillary supporters. That would no doubt include Hillary supporters and anti Trumpers in the FBI, the DOJ, and in Congress. The timing of the second FISA request is interesting when viewed in this context. The inclusion of the Steele dossier is the only known difference between the request submitted in June, which was denied, and the October request. It is reasonable to infer the Steele dossier represented the key evidence which resulted in FISA approval.<br />
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The timing of the attempted leak or release of the Steele dossier is telling. It was, after all, timed to happen just prior to the election when it would create maximum damage with no time for rebuttal. That tactic has certainly worked quite well many times over. This was not a desperation move. A leak is a leak. As we have seen over and over, leaks can be quite untraceable. There is little to no doubt it happened. That has been fairly well documented. This is probably the very purpose the Steele dossier was created for. I conjecture it was never meant to be used as evidence before a FISA court. <br />
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The incredible thing to me is the Steele dossier failed in its original intended purpose. This probably came as quite a surprise to the players behind the Steele memo. Considering the absolutely awful reporting the media has engaged in and frequently had to retract since the election, their not using at least some of the Steele dossier is hard to believe. It is almost inconceivable. The fact is the dossier's contents were not believable and would be obviously irresponsible to make public even in the context of unsubstantiated leaks. Does this not make you wonder if the people holding an using the dossier were not aware it was that bad? I think they were. Using it in a FISA request could be one of two things in my opinion. Supreme arrogance or desperation and panic. Either explanation works.<br />
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Unfortunately, Hillary did lose. At that point all the unethical, perhaps illegal, and potentially damaging actions I have listed had already happened. <br />
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So what does this have to do with the Mueller probe? Nothing, except that the fact of the Mueller probe existence provides a legal means of denying access to pertinent information and allows the players to legally refuse to answer questions, even in the face of constitutional Congressional oversight and FOIA requests. Meaning, assuming illegal and unethical behavior, the Mueller probe provides cover. Perfectly legal and perfectly reasonable cover.<br />
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Understand, despite her 9/11 collapse, Hillary actually losing the election to Donald Trump of all people was still the shock of the century. Had Hillary won we would not be discussing any of this. It would have been business as usual. There would have been no Mueller probe. There would have been no Nunes memo. Everything that occurred afterwards hinges upon the simple fact Hillary lost. In the end, that is perhaps all you need to consider. <br />
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I have a sad and sorry suspicion everything I have detailed above is in actuality nothing more than business as usual.<br />
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Thank you for reading this far. Please share if you are so inclined. Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-88153707236664469362017-12-16T10:55:00.002-08:002017-12-16T11:14:20.637-08:00Book Revisit: The Amityville Horror <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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I first read the Amityville Horror back in 1976 or 1977. At the time I was in middle school. I have no idea how the book came to me, it just appeared in the house. It was probably a gift from someone to my mother. She was a big reader and a long time lover of murder mystery novels and the like. Especially true stories. <br />
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What caught my eye were the flies on the cover. That and the big Satan's tail. The Satan's tail part was a pretty slick bit of marketing for a post Manson America. In the 70's much of America still very much obsessed with the idea of evil Satanic cults running around either corrupting or sacrificing impressionable teens. Much of that fear was of Satan crazed, hippie like young people enacting Manson like mayhem, but that was not all people feared. Much of America, then and now, believed in a very literal, very real Satan who, although incorporeal, is able to interact with and act upon the corporal world. To many people Manson represented the end product of such an interaction.<br />
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For me, it was the flies. They were huge, nasty, and pretty real looking. They seemed to be saying "Don't read this, it is evil!" which pretty much made it irresistible. So yeah, I read it. And it was pretty frightening. <br />
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The original book I read had photos. They showed the actual house, members of the Defeo family, newspaper clippings about the murders, and crime scene photos. All of which gave it a "this is real" vibe. I was not unaffected by the times either. On a cultural, social level, not quite on the level of conscious recognition, I was primed to believe from numerous sources. After finishing the book I literally had to move it out of my bedroom so I could sleep. That too was ultimately really all about the flies. They just looked so real, as if they might come off the page and fly around in my room in the middle of the night while I slept. Looking back I realize while I knew that was impossible and just wasn't going to happen in that part of my world where rational and logical thought holds sway, subconsciously it was not nearly so improbable and in fact maybe fairly likely. <br />
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I have also since come to understand, when it comes to matters of fear and extreme emotion, the logical, rational mind really isn't always the primary origination point of human thought. <br />
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It is now 2017 and after 40 years and maybe six different movie versions later I have read the book a second time. There is no denying the cultural power and influence of this book over those 40 years. There is also no denying that power and influence 40 years later is somewhat diminished. The times are different. Today's fears are not the same as those of 1976. Satanic cults have not spawned hordes of demonically possessed, drugged crazed hippies despoiling graveyards, killing cats, and murdering pregnant women in the dead of night. We are far less worried about Satan as a Judeo Christian boogey man. That aspect of the culture which provided fuel for the cultural phenomenon and near hysterical theater experience which was the movie the Exorcist has changed. Possession movies and stories are still pretty good but they don't really grab you by the gut as they did back then.<br />
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I also found the writing to be a bit juvenile, something that I just didn't notice back then. I was still reading Hardy Boys books after all. Don't get me wrong. The book is mainly written as a reporter duly recounting a story second hand. That was and is still a part of the book's power. Yet, the writing is just a tad bit unpolished. I will explain by example. How polished would my blog writing be is I finished every paragraph with an exclamation point!<br />
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Otherwise, how would you know something exciting had just happened, right? <br />
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Still, 40 years later, despite six or so movies and a complete shift in culture, despite its writing flaws, I found it an enjoyable read. The story is a good story and it is written in a clean, matter of fact manner. It doesn't really affirm or deny, it is this is what I was told. The basic facts of the story are absolutely true. The Defeos did live and all but one die in that house. The Lutz family did move in and move out shortly thereafter, leaving all behind. To that degree at least, this is a true story.<br />
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As to the rest, the supernatural component? Much of the corroboration of the details Jay Anson, who died in 1980, cited have since supposedly been debunked or at least discounted somewhat. However, much has not. The basic question did something happen or did nothing happen has not been definitively answered to this day. <br />
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If you are interested, the last time I looked, which was just a few years ago, there were still articles and information about the actual events on the web, including examinations of the supernatural aspects of the story.<br />
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And yes, I do have a certain level of nostalgia for the 70's, for that less incredulous if not actually more innocent time when the Exorcist could scare the holy BeJesus out of anyone and everyone. I am still primed to believe at least a little. I kind of really want to stay that way.<br />
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Woodstock, Georgia<br />
December 2017<br />
<br />Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-8238155700677720422017-10-31T12:29:00.002-07:002017-10-31T12:29:58.110-07:00A Hallowe'en Encounter - A Bubba Jr Tale
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Halloween is come. Yet I am thinking not so much of candy
and plastic or rubber masks. Rather, I am thinking of older times. Perhaps some
racial or genetic memory calls down the centuries flown. My pagan ancestors,
speaking in faint whispers, some ancient humming along the usually insensitive antennae
of my DNA. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suddenly the word Halloween
doesn’t fit on my tongue. Nor Hallowe’en. Not even All Hallows Eve. No, the
right word is…. Samhain. The coming of the dark half. It is not a celebration,
not a fall festival. It is a wake. It is the death of the old year, the end of
light and warmth, and the beginning of the long dead of winter. I imagine
hearing the words of the shaman, a druid priest, speaking beneath bushy brows
and fierce eyes, to beware. For this night, after darkness falls, as midnight
waxes, the wall which separates this world from that other becomes thin. So
that others may pass. Others….and the dead. Not only to pass, but to speak, and
to be heard. If you dare.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Feeling that call, I make my way. As the shadows of
encroaching night gather beneath old oaks, their bare branches questing for the
darkening sky even as their roots grasp the cold ground, I find myself
standing. Standing before tomb stones. My familial plot. Why here? I ask
myself. Do I really think to hear some dear voice, long silent, speak as dry
leaves skitter over my feet? It all begins to seem so, irrational. Even so, I
seem to be possessed with a sense of abandon. My decision made, I set upon the
old marble border which marks the extent of the ground where relatives lay,
unseeing and unknowing.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Presently I see a figure marching along an approaching path.
It has become quite dim now, so he moves as a shadow within shadows. Yet, I can
see it is a man with grey hair, wearing a hat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“They’re coming to get you Barbara” I whisper, chuckling. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Still he comes, marching to some unheard cadence. Soon he is
close enough I can see it is a military uniform he wears. But what kind?
Everything about him seems strangely colorless. He is all grey. His face a blur
of lighter grey floating within darker grey borders.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I suddenly realize I should be frightened, yet I am not.
Again, there is a sense of abandoning…something. Fear perhaps? It is, after
all, Samhain.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Before too long he stands before me. I see he is indeed an
old man. His greyish face is pulled tight against his closed mouth, like a man
clinching his jaws against a long remembered bitter taste. His uniform is now
distinct and clearly old. Civil war I guess. Once again, the thought passes
briefly, I should be scared, but I am not. I am now feeling and acting as a
dreamer in a dream, one I am strangely aware has no power to touch me in any corporal
sense.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The words slip out of my mouth, almost of their own
volition. “Whose color’s do you wear?”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">His bright moonlit grey ghost marble eyes turn to me. His
lips part like someone who has forgotten speech, forgotten speech even existed.
I wait in quiet anticipation. Until he finally speaks in a faint whisper.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“Whose colors…..I had forgotten. Color.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">His voice becomes stronger.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“I wore the colors of the cause, son.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“The cause….”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">His eyes, now becoming less distinct in the gather dark,
lift to peer at some unseen horizon. His shoulders straighten with some new
vigor as he speaks, as it turns out, one last time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">“There comes a time when your colors don’t seem to matter so
much. When all you see is red. Red everywhere. Rivers of red, flowing like
tears. Futile, bitter tears. Then everything turns black and finally, finally
everything fades to grey. Nothing but grey. And before long no one even
remembers your name, least wise no one comes to speak it. Everything you ever
worried or fought about, it just don’t matter no more. Then all you want is
rest. You gotta let it go and……rest. That’s where I’m heading. Gonna find that
place.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I really didn’t know what to say, he seemed so sad and yet,
there was a certain gallantry and calm to his resignation. I couldn’t meet his
eyes, so instead I looked to the ground at my feet. Finally I looked up to face
his gaunt determination and…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">He was gone. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">And soon so was I. Back to the warmth and light of home. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-63463328748118992132017-10-08T09:31:00.000-07:002017-10-08T09:31:00.755-07:00Gun Control: Facts on Guns
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Today I am going to tackle the current debate on gun
control. Well kind of. I am not going to try and persuade one way or the other. For this blog entry I am going to do nothing more than give facts. <em><strong>Much of what you hear about the topic from both sides is inaccurate and down right misleading.</strong></em> I will be neither of those things. I
will also link some Youtube videos so you can take those facts and place them
into real world context. I will also include appropriate excerpts from Wikipedia at the end so you can understand what exactly an "assault rifle" really is.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">It may not be obvious to those who are completely unfamiliar
with guns but the term “assault weapon” is essentially meaningless. It is not a
term the military uses. In the modern world the vast majority of semi-automatic
weapons use a detachable magazine. What differentiates an “assault weapon” from
any other weapon using a detachable magazine as defined by the 1994 Federal Assault
Weapons Ban is the addition of features which essentially do nothing to make it
a “military” weapon. As you will see, detachable magazines have been around and
in common civilian use for 112 years. By the way, a grenade launcher is really
a fanciful term when you can’t buy grenades. Call it a flare gun, which is
what it really is. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Now for a bit of history.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Benjamin Tyler Henry invented the Henry repeating rifle in 1862.
Not a true semi-auto, it still had to be cocked between each shot. The original
Henry rifle used in limited numbers in the Civil War held 15 .44 caliber
cartridges in a tubular magazine. These were 200 grain loads with a muzzle
velocity of 1200 feet per second. The 1873 Henry rifle, often chambered for the
more powerful .44-40 cartridge, is basically the famous cowboy rifle. </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Today’s modern semi-auto rifle was essentially born with the
introduction of the 1905 Winchester “self loading” rifle. These came chambered
as either .32 or .35 calibers with 5 or 10 round capacity magazines. While
there have been improvements in loading mechanisms and magazine design the
basic concept has not changed. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The submachine gun was developed in World War I (1914 - 1918). The term was coined by John T. Thompson, the inventor of the Thompson Machine Gun. Submachine guns as essentially machine guns chambered to fire pistol cartridges.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The first assault rifle is generally recognized to be the <span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Sturmgewehr 44, introduced by Germany in World War II. Supposedly named by Adolf Hitler, the word Sturmgewehr literally means storm. Same as elements of the German army were known as Storm Troopers. Or as we would call them assault troops. The weapon was designed based upon the idea most firefights occur with opposing forces being within 300 yards of each other. See the linked video below for a very cool demonstration of this weapon.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">The M1 Garand was introduced at the end of World War II. The
basic difference between the M1 and the Winchester 1905 is the magazine is not
detachable. Rapid loading is achieved by using a clip. This allows the gun to
be fully reloaded and cocked for firing in one smooth motion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">I own and have used semi-automatic weapons with magazines in
all three configurations above. Ranging from a .22 tubular fed long rifle (which
holds 17 rounds by the way) up to an M1 style .308 high powered deer rifle. All
of which are very much lethal weapons. Weapons similar to each one have been used as military weapons. Calibers from .22 and up have been used as military weapons.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Below are Youtube links so you can see exactly how these types of guns operate. They are every bit as lethal and in the case of a high powered
rifle more lethal than an AR 15.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=89n-51foFqI&t=26s" rel="" target="_blank">Firing a lever action with tubular magazine</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZNXywarh-M" rel="" target="_blank">Loading and Shooting the M1 Garand</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr9o4xvTDcs" rel="" target="_blank">Loading and Shooting the Winchester 1907 Self Loading Rifle</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMK5OGEIbwk" target="_blank">Firing the Sturmgewehr 44</a></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERxpa14WnSo" target="_blank">Firing a Thomson Machine Gun</a></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<br />
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<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The following
information comes from Wikipedia. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The U.S. Army
defines assault rifles as "short, compact, selective-fire weapons that
fire a cartridge intermediate in power between submachine gun and rifle
cartridges." In a strict definition, a firearm must have at least the
following characteristics to be considered an assault rifle:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It must be
capable of selective fire.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It must
have an intermediate power cartridge: more power than a pistol but less
than a standard rifle or battle rifle.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Its ammunition
must be supplied from a detachable box magazine.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It must
have an effective range of at least 300 meters (330 yards).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Rifles that
meet most of these criteria, but not all, are technically not assault rifles,
despite frequently being called such.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">For example:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Select-fire
M2 carbine are not assault rifles; their effective range is only 200
yards.</span><sup><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 9.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault_rifle#cite_note-17"><span style="color: blue;">[17]</span></a></span></sup><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Select-fire
rifles such as the FN FAL battle rifle are not assault rifles; they fire
full-powered rifle cartridges.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Semi-automatic-only
rifles like variants of the Colt AR 15 are not assault rifles; they do not
have select-fire capabilities.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Semi-auto
rifles with fixed magazines are not assault rifles; they do not have
detachable box magazines and are not capable of automatic fire.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The term <i>assault
rifle</i>, when used in its proper context, militarily or by its specific
functionality, has a generally accepted definition with the firearm
manufacturing community. In more casual usage, the term <i>assault weapon</i>
is sometimes confused with the term <i>assault rifle</i>. In the United States
"assault weapons" are usually defined in legislation as semi-automatic
firearms that have certain features generally associated with military
firearms, including assault rifles. The 1994 Federal Assault Weapons ban, which
expired on September 13, 2004, codified a definition of an assault weapon. It
defined the rifle type of assault weapon as a semiautomatic firearm with the
ability to accept a detachable magazine and two or more of the following:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a folding
or telescoping stock<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a pistol grip
that protrudes conspicuously beneath the action of the weapon<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a bayonet
mount<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a flash
suppressor or threaded barrel designed to accommodate a flash suppressor<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 8pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list .5in;"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">a grenade
launcher<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">End Wikipedia<o:p></o:p></span></div>
Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-39367569625779589512017-09-16T07:41:00.000-07:002017-09-16T07:41:46.555-07:00Let be be Finale of Seem, the Odd Connectivity Between the News and Freddy KreugerIt is Saturday the 16th of September and like every Saturday I am blessed to be drinking good coffee with my wonderful wife, while our poor mistreated yet spoiled silly kitties alternate between begging for more yummy and playing cat tag over every square inch of the house. Meanwhile, our house horses, a Great Dane and a German Shepherd, preside over the basement. No doubt anticipating the morning grub run.<br />
<br />
Speaking of which, I honestly can't stand Sheppard Smith on Fox. It isn't his condescending, snarky delivery, though that does suck. It isn't even the way he keeps interjecting his personal bias in a condescendingly snarky manner, though that sucks too. No, my dislike goes way beyond such superficial concerns. I just think if they are going to paint a face on the man they aught to at least make it resemble a human face. I have seen better airbrush jobs on T shirts in Florida. But ol' Shep isn't the only painted pundit (Ack! Argle!) on TV. There is also Chris Cuomo and George Stuffituphisbuttous. Consider the following unimpeachable evidence:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI-eRxxVq5WVwXu6JlvdCq9J_0Azp9p54DVZavKnfnFzo0Onox713rOBX7xgncmvPNiXRrV2RL9WJibozlMnRgk4RSWfq-_gAG5wJFG2uTrHWzaH-rsNk3UfnJzlnSAV_47F4SEmvHaJxu/s1600/dummies.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="282" data-original-width="1394" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI-eRxxVq5WVwXu6JlvdCq9J_0Azp9p54DVZavKnfnFzo0Onox713rOBX7xgncmvPNiXRrV2RL9WJibozlMnRgk4RSWfq-_gAG5wJFG2uTrHWzaH-rsNk3UfnJzlnSAV_47F4SEmvHaJxu/s640/dummies.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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No offense, but other people in the business of upchucking bile and partially digested farm animal feces directly into the collective face of America manage to look less manikinish when they are at it. Though perhaps the in your face faux human look is actually fitting. It goes with the overall tone. Though fake, could it be unintentionally honest? A fraudulent Freudian faux pas perhaps.</div>
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For some reason they remind me of the Prime Mediator from the movie Robot Overlords, a robot made into a fake yet disturbingly similar image of a human. His job is to keep humans subjugated and demoralized, working with traitors to fool and mislead. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv_cplj7yiNwY-eh6vks-_EjQp03iZAPqTs9BHsQm4NIf2jeklhwTdnJmg49zx1fxjD2FEJHPCJ4sJCdvKEdSHhs8VCWc0xm__Y7Tua6qXlv6bRpBQxsV9rDm32ng1CcRjyyFzb1cT4lII/s1600/Robot-Overlords-2014-movie-Milo-Parker-6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="450" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv_cplj7yiNwY-eh6vks-_EjQp03iZAPqTs9BHsQm4NIf2jeklhwTdnJmg49zx1fxjD2FEJHPCJ4sJCdvKEdSHhs8VCWc0xm__Y7Tua6qXlv6bRpBQxsV9rDm32ng1CcRjyyFzb1cT4lII/s400/Robot-Overlords-2014-movie-Milo-Parker-6.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizhAkcAy94ft5C0N5EhlFCX1hmgXjpRmtVD2IUWS_KrA6OEhj95hhtiF4G3Hga2cfgbCEwp4pTSA1J2uz6nMwfBoVzBeV5J7buHWjIeNICJxwqbLxs4pCDMowazFk1m-ipIz_9x-6Iv3PJ/s1600/ROBOT_OVERLORD_Szenenbild_06.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="749" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizhAkcAy94ft5C0N5EhlFCX1hmgXjpRmtVD2IUWS_KrA6OEhj95hhtiF4G3Hga2cfgbCEwp4pTSA1J2uz6nMwfBoVzBeV5J7buHWjIeNICJxwqbLxs4pCDMowazFk1m-ipIz_9x-6Iv3PJ/s400/ROBOT_OVERLORD_Szenenbild_06.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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People who know me will understand, a movie metaphor is an inevitability. I stand by this one.</div>
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Oh, but there is more. Something else jumped out at me. I wonder at no one noticing this suspicious coincidence. Our country is supposed to be crawling with conspiracy theorists, tin foil hattists, and fake newsologists. You guys are falling down, bad. How did this get past you?</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEJsUtOv2gjTtfqNxSZNaa2RpmsDdJLsVSnMEJrY8Pw0L6G0RjDTqb6khYDUwmBc-fp0uk-2Xevn2DKR892VAAJG3U79TFght99lwGct6tXhDCm4qWLxyw6gDLrxeFTUOyQybHPh43ZgVZ/s1600/hair.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="1282" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEJsUtOv2gjTtfqNxSZNaa2RpmsDdJLsVSnMEJrY8Pw0L6G0RjDTqb6khYDUwmBc-fp0uk-2Xevn2DKR892VAAJG3U79TFght99lwGct6tXhDCm4qWLxyw6gDLrxeFTUOyQybHPh43ZgVZ/s640/hair.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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What are the odds Chris Cuomo and Rand Paul both see the same stylists or hair restoration clinic? Yeah, me neither. But notice how Rand appears somehow, more human. But wait, there is more!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilqUOFwzWtwuTYd_AtxhdlkpBWkX1dXTJGAv2Ku9-v0Qa4rMI5B_fT7SXJ16duMA4XKsWP66IK5WoEfwX81FKOjV915cIZAZIV11wyLNnoAij4gLXKIA68poKHyi6X6jUH0fkrPnL6ZdfX/s1600/strange.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="250" data-original-width="825" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilqUOFwzWtwuTYd_AtxhdlkpBWkX1dXTJGAv2Ku9-v0Qa4rMI5B_fT7SXJ16duMA4XKsWP66IK5WoEfwX81FKOjV915cIZAZIV11wyLNnoAij4gLXKIA68poKHyi6X6jUH0fkrPnL6ZdfX/s640/strange.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Connections. There are connections everywhere in the secret make up departments and hair restoration clinics of the halls of power. Connections they don't want us to know about. Speaking of which, has anyone at any time or place ever seen George StuckinHillarysAss's hair actually move? Is it even real? Is anything we see on the dumb box real? Or is it just a dream within a dream? A pan spinning in the wind to confound crows?</div>
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<em>"Call the roller of big cigars,<br />The muscular one, and bid him whip<br />In kitchen cups concupiscent curds.<br />Let the wenches dawdle in such dress<br />As they are used to wear, and let the boys<br />Bring flowers in last month's newspapers.<br />Let be be finale of seem.<br />The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream"</em></div>
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<em>"Take from the dresser of deal,<br />Lacking the three glass knobs, that sheet<br />On which she embroidered fantails once<br />And spread it so as to cover her face.<br />If her horny feet protrude, they come<br />To show how cold she is, and dumb.<br />Let the lamp affix its beam.<br />The only emperor is the emperor of ice-cream."</em></div>
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<em>Credit: Wallace Stevens & Stephen King's 'Salem's Lot</em></div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-34789428479083442832017-07-22T17:25:00.001-07:002017-07-22T17:25:36.738-07:00Berkeley Earth Super Duper ExposedOver the past week I have spent a lot of my spare time examining the Berkeley Earth temperature data to a greater depth than ever before. What I have found is shocking. It is unbelievable just how bad the dataset they are using truly is. There is no science here. This is fraud at worst, gross incompetence at best. Perhaps the best way to explain what I found is to explain how I went about examining and organizing their data.<br />
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The first thing I realized was Excel was just not powerful enough to handle the complexity and size of the task of data analysis. So I imported the information into an Access database. Access is capable of handling far more records than Excel. It is also far more powerful. <br />
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The very first thing I did was to examine how complete the records were. I want to look at annual averages. So I ran a query to order all the records by station and by year. Then I looked at how many readings each station had for each year. What I found were thousands of incomplete years. Some had only one month. Obviously, you can't compute an annual average for a year when there are not 12 months recorded. Considering how the temperatures vary in one year, a missing month can skew the average by quite a bit. It is certainly an inaccurate record which can not be used.<br />
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I also found dozens of records with more than 12 readings in one year. In fact I found as many as 99 monthly averages recorded for one station in one year. These are obviously duplicate records.<br />
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After I extracted from the original dataset only those years with complete records and eliminated all the duplicate records the number of stations dropped from over 4600 to 3127. In other words some 32% of the stations were eliminated because they consistent of incomplete or duplicate data. That is a really high casualty rate.<br />
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The final step was to create the program to generate the information I wanted to extract from the set of complete annual data. Based upon a start date and an end date, the program extracts every station with a complete record for each year in the date range, and then reports the annual average temperature of all stations for each year. Secondarily, the program also provides a count of stations. <br />
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Below is a screen grab of the program output for 1975 through 1980.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd7r2PrLS-UlyJj1lH5dNao5vHejt491CAvT6pbJxbNv1yyrA0GECXJt2MHwaPpYy_Z_5yByQFTjP2thWmFpwde1_yEdTFGuKAoN9fIsncx04DzznCRsXHmP0NnFbfUouKcTFtENQ7ronb/s1600/8.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="220" data-original-width="401" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd7r2PrLS-UlyJj1lH5dNao5vHejt491CAvT6pbJxbNv1yyrA0GECXJt2MHwaPpYy_Z_5yByQFTjP2thWmFpwde1_yEdTFGuKAoN9fIsncx04DzznCRsXHmP0NnFbfUouKcTFtENQ7ronb/s320/8.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
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So, I now have a database tool which can almost instantly generate a record of temperatures from stations continuously reporting between any two years between 1880 and 2004. This is where my next graph comes in. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5lZr_9nJWyGKDjtWDr9qtxWInwz2LOp6XIihR6yG9LJ9cjuGD9KfB4-L2PV5M6sz_MCW9wdNO5TEvZtEc1UWxvd6o95HjwFiDy3fSM1AAwhmLHhyphenhyphenp6ko8ycwUlMYnLNmgU96Aa56xwpD/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="456" data-original-width="880" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5lZr_9nJWyGKDjtWDr9qtxWInwz2LOp6XIihR6yG9LJ9cjuGD9KfB4-L2PV5M6sz_MCW9wdNO5TEvZtEc1UWxvd6o95HjwFiDy3fSM1AAwhmLHhyphenhyphenp6ko8ycwUlMYnLNmgU96Aa56xwpD/s640/1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Do you see the problem here? Out of 3127 stations in the record only 2 contain a complete record from 1880 to 2004. Only 5 were continuously reporting from 1950 to 2004. That includes the original 2 by the way. There were only 44 stations reporting from 1980 to 2004. There were 380 stations reporting from 2000 to 2004. Yet, in 2004 there were 805 stations reporting. <br />
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So it appears the only usable data in the entire 120 MB's of original data is that from just two stations. The rest of it is too fragmentary, incomplete, or just does not cover enough time to be useful. Just two stations, one in Russia and one in Switzerland.<br />
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This is all they have. Unbelievable. <br />
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Just two more graphs and we will call it a day. I think these are pretty self explanatory.<br />
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Below is a graph showing the high and low annual averages for each year from 1900 to 2004. You will notice only the lowest reading vary, and they vary hugely. You are looking at temperatures in the -55° C (-67° F) range. That would be Antarctica. You are seeing the effects of 12 stations running from 1953 to 1994 for periods ranging from 42 years to 1 year. Do you think having 2, 3 or 12 annual averages at such an extreme might have some noticeable affect on the "global average"? This is an extreme example of how ridiculous this entire business truly is.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkCmMfXqM2DfCVpNjvmv7vWhPnzG-PqsC0s5pvtxYSukYGKtkdexgDaVu5da36tGb2-RZI4yWJVNjGcnfjKiKCQMRfvopsZbO8Ty1W9FF1rmUVKT5scxWaPPuejzAZQajWBJwwM2L3mt3M/s1600/9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="931" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkCmMfXqM2DfCVpNjvmv7vWhPnzG-PqsC0s5pvtxYSukYGKtkdexgDaVu5da36tGb2-RZI4yWJVNjGcnfjKiKCQMRfvopsZbO8Ty1W9FF1rmUVKT5scxWaPPuejzAZQajWBJwwM2L3mt3M/s640/9.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Here is the record of stations reporting by year from 1900 through 2004. Enough said, don't you think?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5vGTHMr0FXaF6qnHSI_slLBdVpTadGZqCChL4scOniHr6IzRN41h7hVc-HweZ08P6JWftAdTPJ81omYDKDVHFpTYD3WPQTWktoDBAtexvLUI5cFds3ZlJh-HU7KsAM0bladOCv27yxmTz/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="934" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5vGTHMr0FXaF6qnHSI_slLBdVpTadGZqCChL4scOniHr6IzRN41h7hVc-HweZ08P6JWftAdTPJ81omYDKDVHFpTYD3WPQTWktoDBAtexvLUI5cFds3ZlJh-HU7KsAM0bladOCv27yxmTz/s640/6.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3683736444112244992.post-46684292320878211772017-07-22T14:54:00.000-07:002017-07-22T14:54:32.764-07:00Dog DazeHere we are, the 22nd of July, and I am in Georgia. This is a miserable time of the year in my home state. Hot. Humid. You don't get that evening temperature drop after the sun goes down. We calls 'em dog days. You would suspect that has something to do with dogs, because dogs don't sweat. Dogs pant. A lot. Historically speaking, it is tough to be a big hairy dog in Georgia around this time of year. In days of old, dogs would be known to invade the root cellar or hide up under a cool front porch or in the crawl space under a house. Some place shady with open dirt, because those places tend to be cooler than most. Dogs also like to roll in mud and swim around in the kind of ponds typically found in cow pastures.<br />
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Dogs who have been rolling in mud or swimming in water subject to cow pie contamination are generally speaking not the ideal bed buddy. The last thing you want rummaging around the bed with you on a hot July night is a big, hairy, hot, reeking of wet dog, dog breathing gallons of hot doggie breath on you for extra good measure. <br />
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All things considered, dog days is a pretty apt description of this time of year. <br />
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However the origins of the term are not here in the wilting summers of the south and the sufferings of hairy dogs. The term comes to us down through the ages from the ancient Greeks. In late July the star Sirius becomes visible, appearing to rise at dawn, just before the sun. Sirius is called the dog star, because it is part of the constellation Canis Major, which the Greeks imagined to be a dog chasing a rabbit. Sirius is the dogs nose. The time of the year where Sirius rises were therefore called dog days. <br />
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Of course the Romans conquered Greece, then conquered pretty much everything all the way to Scotland. Later on Shakespeare wrote a bunch of plays featuring Romans and so forth. Mark Twain wrote the Adventures of Huckleberry Finn, which featured disreputable thespians doing Othello don't you know. Somewhere in an amongst all that hoopla and flap doodle the ancient Greeks and that entire astronomy part just kinda dropped off. As far as we are concerned nowadays, Homer is Bart Simpson's Dad. It is what it is.<br />
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Having read both Huckleberry Finn and Tom Sawyer, having once watched the movie Romeo and Juliet as part of an English Lit class in high school, and being a true native of the south I am somewhat of an expert on these matters. Plus I have been to the planetarium at the Fernbank Science Center. Twice. <br />
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You can trust me on this one.Mark Fiferhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08448651421878810438noreply@blogger.com0